000 FGUS72 KTAE 280054 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-080000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 845 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER AND PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE RIVER BASIN. ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTHERN FLORIDA ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF 4 TO 5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER APALACHICOLA RIVER LAST NIGHT...BUT WE FEEL THIS INFORMATION MAY BE SPURIOUS AND AMOUNTS WERE AT MOST IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THERE. AN UPDATED TABLE SHOWING THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH APRIL 30 WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT DROUGHT PRODUCT NEXT WEEK AFTER MONTHLY RAINFALL REPORTS ARE RECEIVED FROM COOPERATORS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOWS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE THE RECORD 2002 AND 2002 LOW FLOWS DUE TO ROUTED WATER FROM UPSTREAM RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA. HOWEVER FLOWS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN...ALL RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN ARE AT BOTTOM SCRAPING LOW FLOWS SUPPORTED ONLY BY VERY WEAK BASE FLOW AND SPRINGS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE CRAWFORDVILLE USGS WELL IS SHOWING A DEFINITE LONG TERM DECLINE IN SUPPORT. STRONGER WATER SUPPLY SUPPORT AND HIGHER GROUND WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 2002 AND 2005 BEGAN TO WEAKEN IN 2006 ARE NOW DROPPING VERY RAPIDLY THIS SPRING. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN EARLY MAY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO COME DOWN FROM THEIR MARCH PEAKS AND ARE STILL ABOVE THE LOWS EXPERIENCED IN 2000 AND 2002. HOWEVER THE MARCH PEAK THIS YEAR WAS DRAMATICALLY LOWER THAN THE MARCH PEAKS THAT OCCURRED IN 2003 AND 2006 AND IS CLOSE TO THE LOW MARCH PEAK THAT OCCURRED IN 2000. THIS POINTS OUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE LOSS OF GROUND WATER SUPPORT FOR LOW FLOWS COMING IN THE NEXT TWO MONTHS RESULTING IN GROUND WATER LEVELS REACHING THE LOWS OF 2000 AND 2002. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...THIS WILL KEEP FLOWS ON THE OCHLOCKONEE AND SUWANEE RIVER BASINS EXTREMELY LOW THIS SPRING. IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE IN THE NORMAL RANGE COMPARED TO LEVELS SINCE 1998. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN AREA...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI) RANGED BETWEEN 400 AND 550 EXCEPT THE LOWER SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER BASINS RANGED BETWEEN 550 AND 600. KBDI CONDITIONS WERE MUCH BETTER OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOSTLY RANGING BETWEEN 100 TO 400. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOIL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY SHORT. RECENT RAIN INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE. PEANUT COTTON FIELD PREPARATIONS REMAIN STEADY. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST OVER BIG BEND AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOIL MOISTURE IS SHORT TO VERY SHORT WITH A HIGH WILD FIRE THREAT. CATTLE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAIR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER PASTURE CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VERY POOR TO GOOD DUE TO DROUGHT GENERATING CONCERN ABOUT CATTLE. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING IS VERY ACTIVE AND HAY SUPPLIES ARE SCARCE. SOUTH GEORGIA...IS STILL RECOVERING FROM EASTER FREEZE WHICH KILLED A MAJORITY OF THE PEACH AND PECAN CROPS AND SET BACK CORN CROPS BY TWO TO THREE WEEKS. THE SAME FREEZE ALSO BURNT BACK PASTURES... HAYFIELDS...TURF AND SOD. MOST CROPS CONTINUED TO SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HELP CROPS BOUNCE BACK IN NON-IRRIGATED AREAS. WHERE AVAILABLE...IRRIGATION IS BEING USED HEAVILY. ALABAMA...PASTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAIR..HOWEVER A SEVERE LACK OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONCERN. MANY PRODUCERS ARE DELAYING PLANTING OF COTTON AND PEANUTS WAITING FOR RAIN. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS ARE FAIR TO GOOD. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE ENTIRE STATE OF GEORGIA IS IN LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 27 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD MAY 3 - MAY 7 CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 27 FOR THE PERIOD MAY 5 - MAY 11 CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SPRING THROUGH JULY...NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED. SEVERE DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN EARLY MAY. THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITION IS NEUTRAL. CPC FORECAST MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING MAY-JULY 2007. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. IN GENERAL...LA NINA PROVIDES WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. $$ LANIER