000 FGUS72 KTAE 230215 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-080000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1015 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES MODERATED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION. THEN A RATHER INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND PRODUCED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE EVENING OF APRIL 14 INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS OF APRIL 15. THIS SYSTEM ALSO DEPOSITED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SWATH FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES WERE COMMON...WITH A NARROW BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES OVER RANDOLPH...LEE...AND NORTHERN WORTH COUNTIES. LESSER AMOUNTS FELL FURTHER SOUTH...RANGING FROM A LITTLE AS A QUARTER INCH TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH. OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH APRIL 21 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1ST THROUGH APRIL 21. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.66 19.07 -9.41 51 SINCE MARCH 1 1.81 9.08 -7.27 20 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.24 15.85 -4.61 71 SINCE MARCH 1 2.55 7.22 -4.67 35 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.95 19.45 -11.50 41 SINCE MARCH 1 0.88 9.00 -8.12 10 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.74 19.83 -11.09 44 SINCE MARCH 1 2.17 8.93 -6.76 24 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.35 14.96 -9.61 36 SINCE MARCH 1 2.61 7.01 -4.40 37 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.61 15.69 -8.08 49 SINCE MARCH 1 1.78 7.15 -5.37 25 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.34 21.30 -4.96 77 SINCE MARCH 1 7.29 9.42 -2.13 77 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.66 19.79 -8.13 59 SINCE MARCH 1 2.03 8.95 -6.92 23 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 14.87 19.20 -4.33 77 SINCE MARCH 1 4.99 8.30 -3.31 60 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.18 17.15 -7.97 53 SINCE MARCH 1 2.44 7.64 -5.20 32 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RESPONDED TO THE APRIL 14-15 RAINS...WITH SHARP RISES OBSERVED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...PEA AND FLINT RIVER BASINS. THIS INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING FORECAST POINTS...NEWTON ALABAMA AND CARYVILLE FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL FLOW WAS ALSO OBSERVED ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN FLORIDA. THESE RIVERS PEAKED DURING THE APRIL 18-20 PERIOD...AND HAVE SINCE STEADILY RECEDED. STREAMFLOWS STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS IN 2000 AND 2002. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME BASEFLOW SUPPORT TO HELP MAINTAIN RIVER LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. HOWEVER...WITH AN EXPECTED DRIER THAN NORMAL SPRING ...STREAMFLOWS COULD EASILY APPROACH THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... IN FLORIDA...SLIGHT RISES (LESS THAN 0.25 FT) IN WATER LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT THE USGS WELLS NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE AND GREENHEAD FROM THE MID MONTH RAINS...FOLLOWED BY STEADY DECLINES. ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...WATER LEVELS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. IN GEORGIA...WATER LEVELS AT SEVERAL WELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA RESPONDED WITH ONE TO TWO FOOT RISES DURING THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 15 TO APRIL 19. WATER LEVELS HAVE SINCE DECLINED BACK TOWARD PRE-EVENT LEVELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USGS WELL IN RANDOLPH COUNTY WHICH CONTINUES TO RISE STEADILY. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI) OF 200-300 WERE COMMON FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...KBDI RANGED FROM 300-500 WITH MODERATE TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...KBDI RANGED FROM 200-400 WITH MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. FINALLY...OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT SUWANNEE VALLEY...KBDI RANGED FROM 400-600 WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... IN FLORIDA...SOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES IN THE PANHANDLE WERE GENERALLY VERY SHORT TO SHORT...WHILE ACROSS THE BIG BEND...THEY WERE VERY SHORT. A LIGHT FROST/FREEZE ON APRIL 8 CAUSED NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO CROPS. OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...PASTURE CONDITIONS VARIED FROM VERY POOR TO GOOD. MOST CATTLE WERE REPORTED IN FAIR CONDITION. IN GEORGIA...MOST CROPS WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION...WITH 80 PERCENT OF THE CORN PLANTED. GROWERS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE THE BENEFICIAL MID MONTH RAINS HAVE BEEN IRRIGATING. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM POOR TO FAIR. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE ENTIRE STATE OF GEORGIA HAS ESCALATED TO A LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 22 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 28-MAY 2 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 22 FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 30-MAY 6 CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITION IS NEUTRAL. CPC FORECAST MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING MAY-JULY 2007. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. IN GENERAL...LA NINA PROVIDES WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MAY 7. $$ JAMSKI