000 FGUS72 KTAE 142213 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321- 252030- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 613 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW EXIST IN THE PANHANDLE... ...DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA... SYNOPSIS... APRIL IS ON AVERAGE THE SECOND DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS COMING ON THE HEELS OF A VERY DRY MARCH. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH APRIL 14 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI-STATE AREA. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1 THROUGH APRIL 14. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.02 18.33 - 8.31 55 SINCE MARCH 1 0.31 8.23 - 7.92 04 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.01 15.21 - 8.20 46 SINCE MARCH 1 0.28 6.48 - 6.20 04 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.23 18.66 -10.43 44 SINCE MARCH 1 0.23 8.09 - 7.86 03 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.72 20.42 - 8.70 57 SINCE MARCH 1 1.64 8.54 - 6.90 19 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 10.98 18.43 - 7.45 60 SINCE MARCH 1 0.89 7.42 - 6.53 12 ASHBURN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.66 16.66 - 5.00 70 SINCE MARCH 1 1.87 6.77 - 4.90 28 AS YOU CAN SEE...THE GREATEST YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL DEFICITS EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. TALLAHASSEE...APALACHICOLA AND PANAMA CITY HAVE HAD LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS SPRING. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOW ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL ON THE PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...OCHLOCKONEE AND FLINT RIVERS. FLOWS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE ST. MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVER BASINS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FLOWS IN THE STEINHATCHEE... FENHOLLOWAY...AND ECONFINA BASINS IN THE SAN PEDRO BAY AREA ARE RUNNING 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. GROUND WATER LEVELS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THEY WERE THIS TIME LAST YEAR. FLORIDA PANHANDLE GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO THE 1998-2000 DROUGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN BASEFLOW LEVELS ON MOST CREEKS AND STEAMS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH KBDI INDICES OF 400 TO IN EXCESS OF 500 BEING OBSERVED FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND WEST. WITH TINDER DRY DEBRIS FROM LAST YEARS HURRICANES...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS SPRING. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THOUGH WARM DRY WEATHER HELPS SPRING PLANTING...SURFACE SOILS ARE ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE TRI-STATE AREA ENCOMPASSING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DEVELOPING SUMMER CROPS WILL NEED RAIN IN MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY RAINFALL CHANCES ARE NOT VERY GOOD FOR THIS SPRING. FORTUNATELY GROUND WATER SUPPLIES ARE IN BETTER SHAPE THAN THE 1998-2000 DROUGHT YEARS. OUTLOOK... LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WHICH IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING SPRING. HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...POSSIBLY SIGNALING A RETURN TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION OCCURS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE UPCOMING ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS GENERALLY ENHANCED WHEN LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE PACIFIC. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED TODAY BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 20-24. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH JUNE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LOCALLY. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY. $$ WOOL/BARRY/LANIER