000 FGUS72 KTAE 090053 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-250000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... SYNOPSIS...A PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONSISTENTLY WEAKENED OR PREVENTED RAIN MAKING SYSTEMS FROM DELIVERING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WINTER OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE NORMALLY DRY CLIMATOLOGICAL SPRING PERIOD. THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WAS ON 2 MARCH 2007 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. ONLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND AREAS WEST HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS OF APRIL 7TH...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREAS ARE RUNNING 6 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN THOMAS COUNTY IS NOW 12 TO 16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HYDROLOGIC YEAR WHICH BEGAN 1 OCT 2006. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH APRIL 7TH FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1ST THROUGH APRIL 7TH. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.75 17.36 -8.61 50 SINCE MARCH 1 0.90 7.37 -6.47 12 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.79 14.35 -4.56 69 SINCE MARCH 1 1.10 5.72 -4.62 19 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.78 17.75 -6.97 61 SINCE MARCH 1 1.29 7.30 -6.01 18 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.82 18.08 -10.26 43 SINCE MARCH 1 1.25 7.18 -5.93 17 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 3.92 13.30 -9.38 29 SINCE MARCH 1 1.18 5.35 -4.17 22 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 6.80 14.28 -7.48 48 SINCE MARCH 1 0.97 5.74 -4.77 17 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.16 19.52 -5.36 73 SINCE MARCH 1 4.81 7.64 -2.83 63 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.13 18.00 -6.87 62 SINCE MARCH 1 1.50 7.16 -5.66 21 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.74 17.59 -5.85 67 SINCE MARCH 1 1.86 6.69 -4.83 28 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 8.96 15.93 -6.97 56 SINCE MARCH 1 2.22 6.42 -4.20 35 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... FLOWS ON ALL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ARE ALL AT BAREBONES BASEFLOW. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REPORTED RECORD LOW DAILY FLOWS ON 4 APRIL ON THE FLINT RIVER AT ALBANY AND BAINBRIDGE. SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY HELPED MAINTAIN GROUND WATER LEVELS IN THE SUWANNEE BASIN BUT THE GROUNDWATER STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THOUGH THE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE...GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE STILL ABOVE THE LOWS REACHED IN 2000 AND 2002. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME BASEFLOW SUPPORT TO HELP MAINTAIN RIVER LEVELS IN THE COMING MONTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LIMIT...AND WITHOUT SPRING RAINS...STREAMFLOWS COULD EASILY APPROACH THE 2000 AND 2002 LOWS. THE RIVER SYSTEMS BEING IMPACTED INCLUDE THE FLINT...OCHLOCKONEE...LITTLE...ST. MARKS...AUCILLA... SUWANNEE...STEINHATCHEE AND ECONFINA RIVER SYSTEMS AS WELL AS SAN PEDRO BAY. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... IN GENERAL GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS THAT WERE REACHED IN 2000 AND 2002. IN FLORIDA...THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT 7 MARCH 2007 REPORT INDICATES THAT THE AVERAGE GROUND WATER LEVELS FOR 84 WELLS ROSE 8 INCHES IN FEBRUARY. HOWEVER...THE LEVELS WERE WELL BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. IN GEORGIA...THE GEORGIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST REPORTS THAT FARM PONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ARE LOW DUE TO POOR GROUNDWATER RECHARGE THIS WINTER. CURRENTLY THE FLORIDIAN AQUIFER WELL LEVELS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 WELL LEVELS...ARE CONTINUING TO RECEDE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES/FIRE DANGER RATINGS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SUWANNEE BASIN...CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 400 TO 600 EXCEPT JEFFERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES RANGE BETWEEN 200 AND 400. GEORGIA FIRE DANGER RATINGS ARE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN AS OF 3 APRIL INDICATES SLIGHTLY DRY CROP MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR THE DROUGHT AREA WITH A CROP MOISTURE INDEX OF MINUS TWO. IN FLORIDA...SOIL MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTH FLORIDA WAS VERY SHORT. HOWEVER...IRRIGATION IS CURRENTLY HELPING MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF RAIN. CROP AND CATTLE CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGED AROUND FAIR WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS HELPING FIELD PREPARATION. GROWERS EXPECT TO START COTTON AND PEANUT PLANTING ON SCHEDULE IN MAY. CORN ALREADY PLANTED HAS GERMINATED WELL. NORTH FLORIDA PASTURE... HOWEVER...IS MOSTLY POOR WITH COOL SEASON FORAGE DECLINING RAPIDLY WHILE SUMMER GRASSES ARE NOT YET IN PRODUCTION. IN GEORGIA...MOST CROPS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION AND 61 PERCENT OF THE CORN HAS BEEN PLANTED. GROWERS ARE REPORTING THAT THEY NEED RAIN AND ARE IRRIGATING. PASTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN AND MORE HAY THAN NORMAL IS BEING FED TO CATTLE. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE ENTIRE STATE OF GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER A LEVEL-1 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE. OUTLOOK... CURRENT MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF RAIN PRODUCING EVENTS MAY LIKELY REACH THE AREA IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHICH MAY HELP REDUCE THE IMPACT OF SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 7TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 13-17 CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 7 FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 15-21 CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS OF EARLY APRIL...THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITION WAS NEUTRAL. THE CPC IS FORECASTING A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHEN LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. IN GENERAL...LA NINA PROVIDES VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND APRIL 21ST 2007. $$ LANIER/BARRY