000 FGUS72 KTAE 240229 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321- 252030- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 928 PM EST THU MAR 23 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...AGRIGCULTURAL DROUGHT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA... PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW. TO DATE...MARCH ACCUMULATION OF PRECIPITATION AT TALLAHASSEE IS .29 INCH. IF NO MORE RAIN WERE TO FALL THE REST OF THE MONTH THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD IN TALLAHASSEE. 60 DAY ACCUMULATIONS ARE RANGING 4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS RUNNING 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE DEFICIT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS...HITTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA PARTICULARLY HARD. MOST RIVERS IN THE ABOVE AREAS ARE RUNNING AT BASE FLOW LEVELS BEING SUPPORTED BY GOOD GROUND WATER LEVELS AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK. DESPITE THE BASE FLOW SUPPORT...RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR 40 PERCENT BELOW AVERAGE AT THE 10 PERCENTILE LEVEL. IT IS A GOOD THING WE HAVE SOME GROUND WATER. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTING AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. LA NINA APPARENTLY IS GENERATING A SITUATION WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WHICH TYPICALLY BRINGS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...IS DISRUPTED. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE COOL TO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS FROM CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. SINCE WE ARE HEADING INTO THE DRY SPRING TRANSITION...THIS MEANS WE PROBABLY HAVE HAD MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WE ARE GOING TO GET FOR THIS PART OF THE YEAR. ON A MORE OPTIMISTIC NOTE...LONG RANGE PROJECTIONS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THIS SUMMER. HOWEVER MUCH OF THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WEATHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 52-LANIER 18-WOOL $$