000
FGUS72 KTAE 131855
ESFTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
151900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009


...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

...BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...


...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PAST RAINFALL...
TOTAL ANNUAL 2008 RAINFALL WAS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. HOWEVER RAINFALL WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER BASINS. THE 2008 RAINFALL CAME
PRIMARILY FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY IN AUG 2008 AND FROM A FEW
FRONTS IN FEB...OCT...NOV...AND DEC 2008. BEGINNING IN JAN
2009...LA NINA HAS DRAMATICALLY REDUCED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

SOIL MOISTURE... LA NINA AFFECTED THE DISTRIBUTION AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THE AREA THROUGH 2008 AND INTO 2009. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY WETTER ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA AND VERY DRY EAST OF TALLAHASSEE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER AND EASTERN BIG BEND COASTAL RIVER
BASINS.

GROUND WATER...
WE ENTERED 2008 WITH A LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. THE 2008
RAINFALL..EXCEPT FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY...DID LITTLE TO FIX THE
PROBLEM. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ARE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
EASTERN BIG BEND INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN. THE SUWANNEE
RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTS THAT MANY OF THEIR WELLS ARE
NEAR OR AT ALL TIME RECORD LOWS.

STREAMFLOWS...
ONLY THE OCHLOCKONEE AND ST. MARKS RIVERS ARE MAINTAINING NORMAL
FLOWS AT THE CURRENT TIME...PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF GROUND WATER
RECHARGE FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY IN AUG 2008.


...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK 
INDICATES AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH JUNE. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW 
NORMAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE 
SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA EASTERN BIG
BEND...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARIZATION...

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MARCH WILL LEAVE THE AREA WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BASED ON HISTORICAL
RAINFALL PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. RAINFALL SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MAJOR RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS SPRING.

THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
SPRING IS LOW.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS 
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE 
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER 
WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE 
FOLLOWING WEB SITES:
 
  WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC 
  WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE/DROUGHT.PHP

$$

LANIER