000 FGUS72 KTAE 130947 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-201200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 545 AM EST THU MAR 13 2008 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO SEVERAL RAIN EPISODES DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS... SYNOPSIS... FROM MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH...THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WAS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS...OBSERVED RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS RANGED FROM 8 TO 15 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. PARTS OF BAY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE PANAMA CITY AREA...EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON FEB 21-22 FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...WHICH WERE CLASSIFIED ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT...RECEIVED 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ON MARCH 7. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MARCH 11 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1 THROUGH MARCH 11. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.18 12.34 1.82 115 SINCE MARCH 1 2.32 2.35 -0.03 99 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.12 10.38 -1.26 88 SINCE MARCH 1 2.49 1.75 0.74 143 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 20.63 12.68 7.95 163 SINCE MARCH 1 3.31 2.23 1.08 148 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 15.36 13.10 2.26 117 SINCE MARCH 1 0.99 2.20 -1.21 45 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.49 9.47 -0.98 90 SINCE MARCH 1 3.73 1.52 2.21 245 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 15.57 14.08 1.49 111 SINCE MARCH 1 1.55 2.42 -0.87 64 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.58 13.02 2.56 120 SINCE MARCH 1 20.48 16.94 3.54 121 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 10.81 12.98 -2.17 83 SINCE MARCH 1 1.90 2.08 -0.18 91 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SIGNIFICANT RISES WERE RECORDED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER FROM THE FEBRUARY 21-23 STORMS. AT GENEVA... THE RIVER CRESTED WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE (18 FT) ON FEBRUARY 24. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SHARP RISES WERE OBSERVED ON THE FLINT RIVER...WITH BAINBRIDGE CRESTING NEAR 22 FT (FLOOD STAGE 25 FT) ON FEBRUARY 24. ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED ON THE MUCKALEE AND SPRING CREEKS. MINOR FLOODING WAS OBSERVED ON THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA. IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HEAVY RAIN EPISODES IN LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING ON THE CHIPOLA NEAR CARYVILLE AND ALTHA...AND THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED ON THE SHOAL AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVERS...AS WELL AS HOLMES CREEK. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INFLOWS FROM RUNOFF UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA PUSHED THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER OVER ITS BANKS AT CONCORD AND HAVANA...WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING REPORTED. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AT BLOXHAM...WATER SURROUNDED SEVERAL HOMES ALONG THE RIVER AT 19.5 FT. SHARP RISES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE WERE OBSERVED ON THE ST MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT AND AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT. RECENT RAINS PRODUCED FLOW INCREASES ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER...MOST NOTABLY ON ITS UPPER REACHES. THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR PINETTA CRESTED AT 1.4 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON FEBRUARY 29. THE SUWANNEE RIVER AT BRANFORD ROSE NEARLY 10 FEET THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. RIVER LEVELS ROSE AT MOST MONITORED SITES...BUT A RECORD MONTHLY LOW WAS OBSERVED AT THE SANTE FE RIVER NEAR FORT WHITE PRIOR TO THE FEBRUARY 21-23 STORMS. SINCE MARCH 1...STREAMFLOWS AT MOST DISTRICT GAGING SITES IMPROVED TO WITHIN NORMAL RANGES...WITH SHARP RISES NOTED ON THE ECONFINA...STEINHATCHEE AND FENHOLLOWAY RIVERS FROM THE MARCH 7 STORM. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SEVERAL RAINY EPISODES MARKEDLY INCREASED GROUND WATER LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS. THE USGS WELLS NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE AND GREENHEAD AVERAGED TWO TO THREE FOOT RISES SINCE LATE FEBRUARY. THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER AND THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY TWO TO FOUR FEET ABOVE THE RECORD LOW LEVELS OBSERVED DURING THE 2000-2002 PERIOD. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE LATE WINTER RAINS GENERATED AVERAGE TWO TO THREE FOOT RISES IN GROUND WATER TABLES FROM SEVERAL OF THE MONITORED USGS WELLS. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS INCREASED BY AN AVERAGE OF A FOOT SINCE JANUARY. ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONITORED WELLS WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE...COMPARED TO 82 PERCENT IN JANUARY. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER (KBDI/FD) OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAINED FROM 0-100/VERY LOW. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...KBDI/FD VALUES LOWERED FROM 100-400/LOW-MODERATE IN MID-FEBRUARY TO 0-100/VERY LOW DURING THE THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...RECENT HEAVY RAIN EPISODES DELAYED EARLY SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS. TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND ADEQUATE IN THE BIG BEND. THE PASTURE CONDITION WAS FAIR TO GOOD AS PASTURES IMPROVED FOLLOWING WARMER WEATHER AS COOL SEASON FORAGES HAVE BEGUN TO GROW. STOCK PONDS WERE FILLING AND APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES TO ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS LEVELS...BUT HAMPERED FIELDWORK. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...RECENT RAINS DELAYED MOST FIELD ACTIVITIES. SMALL GRAINS REMAINED IN GOOD CONDITION DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM SPELLS. TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS. THE PASTURE CONDITION WAS FAIR TO GOOD. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE TWO WATER SHORTAGE ORDER REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THIS ORDER INCLUDES RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME EXEMPTIONS...FOR ALL WATER-USE CATEGORIES INCLUDING RESIDENTIAL...COMMERCIAL...INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURAL. MANDATORY WATER-USE RESTRICTIONS WILL TAKE EFFECT ON MAY 14 2008. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MARCH 12 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 18-22 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MARCH 12 FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 20-26 CALLS FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST MONTH INDICATED A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE GREATER THAN 2 DEGREES CELSIUS BELOW AVERAGE. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT THE MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA WILL CONTINUE THIS MONTH...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND FROM APRIL THROUGH JUNE. WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PREDICTED THIS SPRING...MOISTURE FROM THE LATE WINTER RAINS WILL BECOME DEPLETED. GROWERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT SPRING CROPS AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY WILL BE AT RISK OF BEING IMPACTED BY THE DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THIS OFFICE UNTIL MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN. $$ JAMSKI