000 FGUS72 KTAE 110143 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321- 111800- FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 621 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... RAINFALL - PRECIPITATION RANGED BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS WINTER. THE EXCEPTIONS INCLUDED THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER BASINS WHICH RECEIVED PERIODS OF 100 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL DURING NOVEMBER...DECEMBER 2005 AND FEBRUARY 2006. THE NET RAINFALL FOR THE WATER YEAR BEGINNING 1 OCT 2005 HAS RANGED MOSTLY AROUND 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE WETTER AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE SANTA FE RIVER RANGED FROM 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE - SURFACE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE THE FIRST PART OF MARCH THAT HAS EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS - AQUIFER WATER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN AND FLORIDIAN AQUIFER SYSTEMS. SOME MAJOR EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE MITCHELL COUNTY NEAR BACONTON GEORGIA WHERE THE FLORIDIAN AQUIFER MEASUREMENT AT AURORA DAIRY IS ABOUT 4 FEET HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME. INTERESTINGLY...GROUND WATER LEVELS IN THE CLAYTON FORMATION NORTHWEST OF THE FLINT RIVER AT THE RANDOLPH...TERRELL...CALHOUN COUNTY LINE ARE RUNNING NEARLY 12 FEET HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. RIVERS IN THE SUWANNEE BASIN SHOW SUSTAINED BASE FLOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INDICATIVE OF NORMAL GROUND WATER LEVELS SINCE BASE FLOWS THERE ARE SUPPORTED BY GROUND WATER SPRINGS. RIVER FLOWS - THOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... LOWER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT LOSS OF GROUND WATER. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE GEORGIA WELL READINGS. THOUGH RIVER LEVELS ARE 20 TO 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS...RECENT RAIN EVENTS SHOW THAT STREAMS ARE STILL RESPONSIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE GOOD BASEFLOW SUPPORT FROM GROUND WATER EVEN IN THE RELATIVELY DRIER AREAS. THE WETTEST AREAS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PARTICULARLY THE ST. MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVER BASINS AND THE SUWANNEE BASIN...INCLUDING THE SANTA FE RIVER BASIN...ALSO HAVE GOOD BASE FLOW SUPPORT AND WILL BE RESPONSIVE TO ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS - POOL LEVELS ARE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO THE "RULE CURVE," OR TARGET LEVELS, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, INFLOWS INTO RESERVOIRS ARE BEGINNING TO RUN BELOW NORMAL IN SOME CASES. IT IS DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR, MANY RESERVOIRS PLAN TO FILL THEIR RESERVOIRS TO SUMMER LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THAT SITUATION. ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TEND TO INCREASE IN MARCH BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IN THE APRIL...MAY TIME FRAME. IT IS COMMON FOR WET FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO SLOW DOWN AND GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA IN MARCH. WITH THE WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS...THERE IS NO STRONG DRY SIGNAL IN THE FORECAST WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT WE WOULD AVOID A SIGNIFICANT SPRING RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ...LONG TERM OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES AND A WET AND WARM SUMMER. THOUGH RIVER FLOWS WILL BE RUNNING LOWER LATER THIS SPRING...ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER RAINFALL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN RIVERS AT SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS YEAR. ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... A REVIEW OF HISTORICAL FLOWS CONSISTENTLY PORTRAY RISES ON RIVERS IN OUR AREA IN THE MARCH TIME FRAME. SINCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR OUR AREA...WE WILL LIKELY SEE NORMAL RIVER RISES IN EARLY SPRING. HOWEVER SINCE FLOWS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH MINOR FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN RIVER FORECAST CENTER... CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY... THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITES AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE 52-LANIER $$