000 FGUS72 KTAE 090051 ESFTAE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 750 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS THIS SPRING WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA DUE TO DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DECLINING STREAM FLOWS...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUND WATER TABLES. ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... PAST RAINFALL... EL NINO CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THIS WINTER. HOWEVER DUE TO THE COOLING OF WATERS IN THE PACIFIC AND A SHIFT TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS...RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WAS QUITE VARIABLE. DURING THE PAST THREE MONTHS...6 TO 10 INCHES FELL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN BIG BEND WHICH WAS 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...8 TO 12 INCHES ACCUMULATED WHICH WAS 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FINALLY...THE WESTERN BIG BEND RECEIVED THE LION'S SHARE OF THE WINTER RAINFALL WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES WHICH WAS 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY SHOW A DRYING TREND. DEFICITS AVERAGED TWO TO THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS. STREAM FLOWS... EARLY IN THE WINTER PERIOD...FLOWS WERE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. RUNOFF FROM THE CHRISTMAS DAY STORM RAISED FLOWS TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THROUGHOUT JANUARY...FLOWS GRADUALLY RECEDED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. FOLLOWING THE FEBRUARY 1 STORM...FLOWS ROSE TO ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. BY THE END OF FEBRUARY...STREAM FLOWS HAD DECLINED BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MUCH OF THE BIG BEND. THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE BASIN MISSED THE STORMS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... WATER LEVELS FOR THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF DECEMBER WERE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND LOW STREAM FLOWS. THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVED FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY AS A STRONG STORM DEPOSITED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY TO DECLINING WATER LEVELS...RUNOFF FROM STORMS ON THE 1ST AND 13TH OF FEBRUARY INCREASED LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND ADJACENT SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUED TO DECLINE AS STORM SYSTEMS BYPASSED THOSE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOW TO EXTREMELY LOW LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN MUCH OF LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ELSEWHERE ARE DECLINING DUE TO THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. RESERVOIRS... POOL LEVELS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR TARGET LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...INFLOWS INTO RESERVOIRS ARE BEGINNING TO RUN BELOW NORMAL IN SOME CASES. ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TYPICALLY INCREASE IN MARCH BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR APRIL AND MAY. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR ACTIVE FRONTS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA AND GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN MARCH. WITH THE NEUTRAL TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING LA NINA CONDITIONS THIS SPRING...THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS FOR ABNORMALLY WET OR DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL AVOID A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT THIS SPRING. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED. ...LONG TERM OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS PREDICTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS WILL BE RUNNING LOWER THIS SPRING...AND WITH NO STRONG INDICATION OF NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN. ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... A REVIEW OF HISTORICAL FLOWS CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYS RISES ON RIVERS IN OUR AREA DURING MARCH. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE PREDICTED NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT LOWER THAN AVERAGE RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH MINOR FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE/HYDRO $$ JAMSKI