000 FGUS72 KTAE 080119 ESFTAE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 805 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS THIS SPRING WILL BE NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND IMPROVED STREAM FLOWS...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUND WATER TABLES. ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... PAST RAINFALL... LA NINA CONDITIONS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER AND JANUARY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH...THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BECAME ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS...OBSERVED RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS RANGED FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES...OR 125-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHICH OBSERVED 4 TO 7 INCHES... OR 75-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE... SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER THROUGH JANUARY INDICATED DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...WITH AVERAGE ONE TO TWO INCH DEFICITS. FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH...SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH MOST AREAS OBSERVING AVERAGE TO SURPLUS MOISTURE. SOILS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ARE SATURATED AND ARE PRONE TO FLOODING. STREAM FLOWS... FLOWS WERE BELOW NORMAL FROM DECEMBER THROUGH JANUARY. SEVERAL RAIN EPISODES SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY HAVE ELEVATED FLOWS BACK TO NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHERE FLOWS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... WATER TABLES DURING DECEMBER AND JANUARY WERE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVED THE PAST 30 DAYS AS A RESULT OF INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN EPISODES. SEVERAL OF THE WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE MOST OF THE MONITORED WELLS OBSERVED FLOWS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. RESERVOIRS... POOL LEVELS DURING THE DECEMBER-JANUARY PERIOD WERE RUNNING BELOW THEIR TARGET LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS...INFLOWS INTO MOST RESERVOIRS GENERALLY INCREASED TO NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... MARCH IS TYPICALLY A RECHARGE MONTH DUE TO THE HIGHER FREQUENCY OF RAIN EPISODES AND MINIMAL EVAPORATION. THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY FIT INTO A MORE NORMAL LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING PATTERN. WITH THE CURRENT LA NINA PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL AND MAY. ...LONG TERM OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS PREDICTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SPRING (MARCH-MAY). ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... CONSIDERING THE LATE WINTER ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...FLOWS...AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...NORMAL CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER BASINS... CHOCTAWHATCHEE/PEA CHATTAHOOCHEE FLINT WITHLACOOCHEE APALACHICOLA OCHLOCKONEE ST MARKS AUCILLA CHIPOLA SHOAL UPPER SUWANNEE LITTLE ALAPAHA SOPCHOPPY NEW BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER BASINS... STEINHATCHEE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE FENHOLLOWAY ECONFINA INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE/HYDRO $$ JAMSKI