000
FGUS72 KTAE 061012
ESFTAE
ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-
073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-
095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-
070000-

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THESE AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN INCHES
OF RAIN DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS
RUNNING BANK FULL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR AREAL AND RIVERINE
FLOODING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS INITIALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

THE FOLLOWING ARE RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN AND FLOOD IMPACTS:

OCHLOCKONEE RIVER: RENEWED FLOWS POSSIBLY UP TO MODERATE FLOOD
LEVELS DOWN THE RIVER INTO LAKE TALQUIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AUCILLA RIVER: THE BASIN IS AT BANK FULL LEVELS AND WILL BE SUBJECT
TO SIGNIFICANT RISES (MINOR FLOODING).

ST MARKS RIVER: THE BASIN IS AT BANK FULL LEVELS AND WILL BE SUBJECT
TO SIGNIFICANT RISES (MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING).

SOPCHOPPY RIVER: THE BASIN WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT RISES.

OKAPILCO CREEK: THE BASIN WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT RISES.

UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN: THE WITHLACOOCHEE, ALAPAHA, LITTLE AND
SATILLA RIVERS ARE AT BANK FULL LEVELS, AND WILL BE HIGHLY
RESPONSIVE TO RAINFALL AND RAPID RISES. PINETTA IS NOT FAR BELOW THE
70 FOOT LEVEL WHICH GENERATED CONCERNS RECENTLY AND COULD EASILY
RISE ABOVE 70 FEET FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THIS RAIN EVENT.

MIDDLE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN: HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER COULD GENERATE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FLOWS NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT FOR INTERESTS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO BE PREPARED FOR
SIGNIFICANT RISES OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. LONG RANGE PROJECTED
CRESTS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER WILL BE AVAILABLE AFTER THIS RAIN EVENT.

SANTE FE RIVER BASIN: STILL RELATIVELY DRY, HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD QUICKLY INCREASE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM. THE EXISTING BACKWATER
RISES FROM THE SUWANNEE ARE PROJECTED TO BRING THREE RIVERS ESTATES
TO FLOOD STAGE IN FOUR DAYS. THREE RIVERS ESTATES COULD REACH FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLS
ON THE SANTE FE RIVER BASIN.

ALL INTERESTS LIVING NEAR OR ALONG THESE RIVER BASINS ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS, AND POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

$$

JAMSKI/LANIER/CAMP