000 FGUS72 KTAE 181018 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-220000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 515 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION... SYNOPSIS... AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD...A PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM THE 5TH UNTIL THE 9TH WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCED AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER RESUMED. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON THE 13TH PRODUCED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM VARIED FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...TO OVER AN INCH FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS THEN DOMINATED THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 17 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 17. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.77 8.05 -0.28 97 SINCE DECEMBER 1 16.12 12.15 3.97 133 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.64 7.13 1.51 121 SINCE DECEMBER 1 16.89 10.64 6.25 159 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 6.19 8.98 -2.79 69 SINCE DECEMBER 1 10.37 12.84 -2.47 81 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 6.81 7.21 -0.40 94 SINCE DECEMBER 1 10.14 10.52 -0.38 96 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.77 7.03 -1.26 82 SINCE DECEMBER 1 9.83 10.26 -0.43 96 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.54 9.72 -1.18 88 SINCE DECEMBER 1 12.89 14.01 -1.12 92 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.43 9.03 0.40 104 SINCE DECEMBER 1 14.03 12.83 1.20 109 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 6.69 7.83 -1.14 85 SINCE DECEMBER 1 9.67 10.86 -1.19 89 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS REGISTERED SHARP RISES ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE ACTION STAGES IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY RAINS ON THE FIRST OF THE MONTH. THE ST MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT CRESTED AT 7.2 FT (FLOOD STAGE 7 FT) ON THE 5TH AND REMAINED AT THAT LEVEL FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE. RIVER LEVELS THEN RECEDED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUS EVENT LEVELS. RUNOFF FROM THE STORM SYSTEM ON THE 13TH RESULTED IN GRADUAL RISES OF SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT REMAINED WELL BELOW THE ACTION STAGES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...STREAM FLOWS HAD DECLINED BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MUCH OF THE BIG BEND. FLOWS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING ADJACENT AREAS OF LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES WERE BELOW NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SEVERAL WELLS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA RECORDED RISES FROM RAINS ON THE 13TH. CONVERSELY...IN THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...RECENT RAINS HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON THE GROUND WATER TABLES...WHICH HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES/FIRE DANGER RATINGS AVERAGED FROM 100-199/VERY LOW-LOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THEY RANGED FROM 200-399/LOW-MODERATE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX FOR THE PERIOD ENDING FEBRUARY 10 INDICATED ABNORMALLY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO RECENT RAINS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA RETARDED THE GROWTH OF SMALL GRAINS AND PASTURES. HOWEVER...SOME LAND PREPARATIONS FOR FIELD CROP PLANTING BEGAN IN SOME PANHANDLE LOCALES. SOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS IN THE PANHANDLE...AND SHORT TO ADEQUATE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. PANHANDLE PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IN GOOD CONDITION...WHILE VERY POOR TO FAIR CONDITIONS WERE COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM FAIR TO GOOD. SOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE GENERALLY ADEQUATE. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 17 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 23-27 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 17 FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 3 CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. WEAKENING EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THE MARCH-MAY 2007 PERIOD. THE CPC THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH-MAY 2007 PREDICTS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER CROP REPORT...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT. $$ JAMSKI