000 FGUS72 KTAE 041939 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-080000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 235 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE... SYNOPSIS... A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA ON JANUARY 21-22 AND PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A HALF TO AN INCH OVER ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FELL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH WAS DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE EL NINO PHASE REMAINED ACTIVE AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE PRODUCED AVERAGE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ON JANUARY 24-25 AND 27-28 FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. ON FEBRUARY 1...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERCAME THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ACTIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH GENERATED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS WELL AS REPORTS OF HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE BIG BEND WITH THREE TO FIVE INCHES COMMON. UNFORTUNATELY...AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO PERRY WHICH REMAIN IN A MODERATE DROUGHT RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. THE FOLLOWING ARE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 7 AM EST FEBRUARY 2... ASOS SITES: ALBANY 1.79 APALACHICOLA 4.03 CROSS CITY 0.66 DOTHAN 2.32 MARIANNA 1.38 PERRY 1.01 PANAMA CITY 3.24 TALLAHASSEE 4.02 VALDOSTA 2.19 COOPERATIVE STATION REPORTS: ALBANY 3 SE 2.02 ASHBURN 1.90 BAINBRIDGE 1.94 BLAKELY 1.95 BRISTOL 4.25 CAMILLA 2.62 CHIPLEY 1.53 CLARKSVILLE 2 N 2.45 CRISP COUNTY PWR DAM 1.63 CUTHBERT 1.50 DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 2.05 DOWLING PARK 1.35 FORT GAINES 1.62 GENEVA 1.62 GEORGETOWN 0.96 LEESBURG 2.00 MARIANNA 1.65 MONTICELLO 3 W 2.54 MOULTRIE 2 N 2.19 NEW HOPE 1.44 NEWTON 5 W 2.00 QUINCY 2.45 ST MARKS NWR 3.70 STEINHATCHEE 1.00 TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT 3.96 VALDOSTA 2 S 2.50 A RETURN TO DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWED IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 19 THROUGH FEBRUARY 3 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 3. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.44 5.84 1.60 127 SINCE DECEMBER 1 15.79 9.94 5.85 159 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.62 5.29 3.33 163 SINCE DECEMBER 1 16.87 8.80 8.07 192 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 6.19 6.64 -0.45 93 SINCE DECEMBER 1 10.37 10.50 -0.13 99 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 6.78 5.34 1.44 127 SINCE DECEMBER 1 10.11 8.65 1.46 117 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.77 5.30 0.47 109 SINCE DECEMBER 1 6.12 8.53 -2.41 72 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.53 7.04 0.49 107 SINCE DECEMBER 1 11.88 11.33 0.55 105 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 8.15 6.68 1.47 122 SINCE DECEMBER 1 12.75 10.48 2.27 122 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 6.15 5.82 0.33 106 SINCE DECEMBER 1 9.13 8.85 0.28 103 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RIVER LEVELS PRIOR TO THE FEBRUARY 1 STORM WERE BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE ACTION AND FLOOD STAGES. MOST AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS RESPONDED WITH SHARP RISES FROM THE FEBRUARY 1 STORM RUNOFF...WITH SEVERAL APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ACTION STAGES. THE ST MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT FLORIDA ROSE TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 7 FEET ON FEBRUARY 2. AT THIS STAGE...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WOULD BEGIN. RUNOFF FROM 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE TALLAHASSEE AREA RESULTED IN A NEARLY 7 FOOT INCREASE IN THE WATER LEVEL AT AMES SINK SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. THE LEVEL ON FEBRUARY 3 REACHED 15.5 FT. PRIVATE ROADS BEGIN TO FLOOD JUST ABOVE 14 FEET. ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN HOWEVER...RISES WERE LESS PRONOUNCED INDICATING THE ANTECEDENT LOW BASE FLOW LEVELS. STREAM FLOWS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. NEAR NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. FLOWS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING ADJACENT AREAS OF DIXIE COUNTY WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR STEADY GROUND WATER LEVELS...RUNOFF AND PERCOLATION OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS INCREASED WATER LEVELS...IN SOME CASES ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER...OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RATE OF WATER RECESSION OVER THE DROUGHT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND HAS SLOWED...AND SHOULD STEADY OFF AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINS UPSTREAM. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES/FIRE DANGER RATINGS PRIOR TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT RANGED FROM 200/LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...TO 300-400/LOW-MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND. FOLLOWING THE RAINS...RATINGS FELL TO LESS THAN 100/VERY LOW OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE THEY RANGED FROM 100-200/LOW. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... CROP MOISTURE RANGED FROM ABNORMALLY WET TO WET OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE CONDITIONS WERE SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABLY WET. THE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS SHOWED A ONE TO TWO INCH DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FLORIDA WEATHER CROP REPORT ISSUED JANUARY 28 INDICATED FAIR TO GOOD PASTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND FAIR TO POOR ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WINTER GRAZING IS SUFFERING DUE TO THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 3 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 9-13 WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 3 FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 11-17 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL PEAK DURING THIS MONTH...THEN WEAKEN DURING THE MARCH-MAY 2007 PERIOD. DURING EL NINO EVENTS...THE JET STREAM IS STRONGER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND OFTEN RESULTS IN WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE AND COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY-APRIL 2007 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD YIELD AN IMPROVING TREND IN THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER CROP REPORT...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI