000 FGUS72 KTAE 271802 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-030000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 100 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF GEORGIA WITH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...NORMAL CONDITIONS EXIST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INTO MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH FLORIDA... SYNOPSIS... THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WAS DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW...WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...THERE WERE SEVERAL WET EPISODES...SEPARATED BY A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THE 16TH AND MOVED NORTHEAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE 17TH. MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM FELL OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WITH AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWED A SIMILAR TRACK ON THE 19TH-20TH...WITH MORE UNIFORM AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES. A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THE 23RD AND PRODUCED 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND. FINALLY...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF GULF LOWS PRODUCED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM 0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA ON THE 25TH-26TH. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JANUARY 26 2008 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 2007 THROUGH JANUARY 26 2008. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 3.27 4.51 -1.24 73 SINCE DECEMBER 1 6.23 8.61 -2.38 72 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 3.48 4.11 -0.63 85 SINCE DECEMBER 1 4.49 7.62 -3.13 59 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 2.19 4.82 -2.63 45 SINCE DECEMBER 1 5.13 8.88 -3.75 58 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 4.04 5.11 -1.07 79 SINCE DECEMBER 1 8.95 8.97 -0.02 99 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 2.44 3.71 -1.27 66 SINCE DECEMBER 1 5.93 6.98 -1.05 85 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 4.80 5.39 -1.28 89 SINCE DECEMBER 1 14.56 9.68 4.88 150 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 3.41 4.92 -1.51 69 SINCE DECEMBER 1 8.31 8.84 -0.53 94 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 2.69 5.14 -2.45 52 SINCE DECEMBER 1 8.65 8.94 -0.29 97 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...RAINFALL ON JANUARY 17 AND 19-20 CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST RISES ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE-PEA RIVER BASINS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE REPORTED ON THE MUCKALEE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK NEAR DAWSON AND PRESTON...AND SPRING CREEK NEAR IRON CITY. FLOWS HAVE SINCE RETURNED TO PRE-EVENT LEVELS. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RAINS DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS GENERATED MODEST RISES ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR CARYVILLE (CRESTED AT 11.5 FT (FLOOD STAGE 12 FT) ON JANUARY 23) AND PITTMAN...AND THE CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR MARIANNA. LEVELS AND FLOWS FROM THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD AND NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER WERE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NORMAL FLOWS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN WHERE ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED. FLORIDA BIG BEND...FLOW ON THE ST MARKS RIVER...WHICH HAS A HIGH GROUND WATER CONTRIBUTION...INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HOWEVER...IT STILL REMAINED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WHILE RECENT RAINS INCREASED FLOWS SLIGHTLY ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER...MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RECENT RAINFALL AND SEASONAL REDUCTION IN WATER USAGE STABILIZED OR INCREASED GROUND WATER LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. DURING THE PAST MONTH GROUND WATER LEVELS FOR SOME WELLS ROSE BY ONE TO TWO FEET. THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER AND THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE THE RECORD LOW LEVELS OBSERVED DURING THE 2000-2002 PERIOD. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...GROUND WATER LEVELS RECHARGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE RECENT RAINS. IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW TO VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW TO VERY LOW. MOST OF THE MONITORED WELLS WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER (KBDI/FD) OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FELL FROM 200-300/LOW-MODERATE TO 100-200/LOW...AND FROM 100-200/LOW TO 0-100/VERY LOW IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN PANHANDLE ACROSS THE BIG BEND...KBDI/FD VALUES RANGED FROM 200-400/LOW-MODERATE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...ALTHOUGH THE DROUGHT WAS INTERRUPTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA... WATER LEVELS RANGED FROM LOW TO VERY LOW. PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO ADEQUATE. THE PASTURE CONDITION WAS VERY POOR TO GOOD. GRAZING POTENTIAL IMPROVED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES PREVENTED IMPROVEMENT IN FORAGE VOLUME OR QUALITY. THERE WAS A VERY LIMITED STOCK OF QUALITY HAY...AND THE COST OF SUPPLEMENTAL FEED REMAINED HIGH. THE CONDITION OF CATTLE WAS POOR TO FAIR. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BENEFICIAL RAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS MONTH PROVIDED FAVORABLE WATER GRAZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE AND HAY SUPPLIES. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MOST AREAS RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...WHICH KEPT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS STEADY AND BENEFITED SMALL GRAINS AND PASTURES. WHEAT WAS IN GOOD CONDITION...AND GROWERS WERE SPRAYING FIELDS TO CONTROL RYEGRASS. THE CONDITION OF PASTURES WAS FAIR TO POOR. SOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO ADEQUATE. OTHER ACTIVITIES INCLUDED FEEDING HAY TO LIVESTOCK AND ROUTINE CARE OF POULTRY. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE TWO WATER SHORTAGE ORDER REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THIS ORDER INCLUDES RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME EXEMPTIONS...FOR ALL WATER-USE CATEGORIES INCLUDING RESIDENTIAL...COMMERCIAL...INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURAL. MANDATORY WATER-USE RESTRICTIONS WILL TAKE EFFECT ON APRIL 7 2008. THE DISTRICT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND A GREATER THAN 15-INCH ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JANUARY 26 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 1-5 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO VALDOSTA...AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JANUARY 26 FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 3-9 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING SPRING MONTHS. OVER HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA THROUGH THE FEBRUARY-APRIL PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE AREA. THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS. WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PREDICTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING SPRING...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. GROWERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI