000 FGUS72 KTAE 190235 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-140000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 935 PM EST THU JAN 18 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINGER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE... SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH ALOFT DOMINATED THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST OF TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON NEW YEARS EVE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON JANUARY 5 PRODUCED MORE UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...ANOTHER SYSTEM ON JANUARY 7-8 GENERATED RAINFALL FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FINALLY YIELDED TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 31 2006 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL 49.34 63.21 -13.87 78 APALACHICOLA FL 40.74 56.51 -15.77 72 CHIPLEY FL 43.61 58.24 -14.63 75 PERRY FL 38.16 57.68 -19.52 66 GENEVA AL 48.00 58.98 -10.98 81 3 SE ALBANY GA 44.35 53.40 -10.08 80 4 N NASHVILLE GA 37.24 44.84 -7.60 83 THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JANUARY 17 2007 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 2.60 2.91 -0.31 89 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 2.29 2.66 -0.37 86 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 2.63 3.27 -0.64 80 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 4.05 2.66 1.39 152 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 3.42 3.41 0.01 100 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 3.95 3.27 0.68 121 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 3.00 2.87 0.13 105 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... AREA RIVERS RESPONDED WITH MODEST RISES TO THE RAINFALL...BUT REMAINED BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE GEORGIA AND HAVANA FLORIDA ROSE ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE ACTION STAGES. STREAM FLOWS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...AND NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE MOST OF THE BIG BEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINS BYPASSED EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND THE NEIGHBORING SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN WHERE FLOWS WERE 10-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND. GROUND WATER LEVELS WHICH ROSE SEVERAL FEET BETWEEN THE FLINT AND CHATTAHOCHEE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD HAVE SINCE STEADIED OFF. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES/FIRE DANGER RATINGS RANGE FROM 200/LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...TO 300-400/LOW-MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ISSUED JANUARY 13 SHOWED ABNORMALLY WET TO WET CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE CONDITIONS WERE SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABLY MOIST. THE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS SHOWS A ONE TO TWO INCH DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA. THE FLORIDA WEATHER CROP REPORT ISSUED JANUARY 16 INDICATED FAIR TO GOOD PASTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND FAIR TO POOR ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. IN THE PANHANDLE...WINTER FORAGE IS GROWING FOLLOWING TIMELY RAINS...AND SOME RANCHERS HAVE CEASED FEEDING HAY FOR LIVESTOCK. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 24-28 INDICATES BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO VALDOSTA GEORGIA...AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 26-FEBRUARY 1 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL PEAK DURING THE JANUARY-FEBRUARY PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN THIS SPRING. HOWEVER...THIS EL NINO EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERY STRONG EVENT OF 1997-1998. DURING EL NINO EVENTS...THE JET STREAM IS STRONGER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND OFTEN RESULTS IN WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY-APRIL CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLEVIATE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER CROP REPORT...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI