000
FLUS44 KOUN 111701
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AT 
MIDDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST MOVING THROUGH SOUTH 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL 
ALLOW SLIGHT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 
NORTH TEXAS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL 
DECREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY SEP 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND SMALL 
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE PLAINS. THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 12.

$$