000
FGUS74 KLZK 091111
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-
147-149-101100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST FRI MAR 9 2012

...FLOODING POTENTIAL DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...

SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND...AS EXPECTED... 
FLOODING WAS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN AS THE DRY SOILS SOAKED UP MUCH 
OF THE RAINFALL.

A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH AREAS OF FLOODING OR 
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP...RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO 
REDUCE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND FLOODING IS APPEARING TO 
BE LESS OF A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST FORECAST INDICATIONS 
ARE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES 
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER EXPECTED 
AMOUNTS...EMERGING VEGETATION IS ABSORBING LARGE AMOUNTS OF 
GROUNDWATER AND THERE WILL BE A TWO DAY GAP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION 
EVENTS. THIS COMBINATION LEADS TO A DECREASING FLOOD CONCERN.

HOWEVER...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED AND RUNOFF PERCENTAGES 
SHOULD STILL BE HIGHER WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN...SO EMERGENCY 
MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL PEOPLE LIVING IN OR VISITING THE AREA 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATED FORECASTS AS THE 
EVENT NEARS.

GIVEN THE DECREASING FLOOD THREAT...UNLESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS 
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE 
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

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