000
FGUS74 KLZK 082130
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-
147-149-091100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...

SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD 
THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF 
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS 
EVENING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION 
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT.

HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH 300 PM 
CST THIS AFTERNOON...TWO TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS WERE ESTIMATED FROM 
PARIS AND DANVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH RUSSELLVILLE...CLINTON...
SEARCY...MELBOURNE AND NEWPORT. ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS WERE COMMON 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FLOOD CONCERNS WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WERE 
MINIMAL...AS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH 
THE FRONT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS 
POSSIBLE. 

GIVEN MORE RAIN ON A NEARLY SATURATED GROUND WILL RAISE THE 
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. AREA RIVERS AND 
STREAMS IN THE OUACHITA...LOWER ARKANSAS...AND LOWER WHITE RIVER 
BASIN WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MINOR TO 
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST. 
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL PEOPLE LIVING IN OR VISITING 
THE AREA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

LATER NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE 
AGAIN AS SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO RIDE A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT
TOWARD ARKANSAS.  

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS 
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE 
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

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