000 FGUS74 KLZK 041940 CCA ESFLZK ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145- 147-149-070000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 04 2011 ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM OZARK LOCK AND DAM DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...MULBERRY...AND ELEVEN POINT RIVERS. ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... RAINFALL - AFTER A RECORD WET 2009...RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE IN 2010. MUCH OF THE STATE HAD 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION...WITH 25 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE NEW YEAR BEGAN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...LIQUID EQUIVALENT WAS NOT MUCH AND DID LITTLE TO REPLENISH THE RAINFALL DEFICIT. THERE WAS SOME RELIEF BY FEBRUARY WHEN SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS STARTED LATER IN THE MONTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SAW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT REMAINS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOIL MOISTURE - LONG TERM SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER ARKANSAS...REFLECTING THE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE SOILS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ARE FAIRLY MOIST ON ACCOUNT OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING. IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF THE STATE WETTER SOILS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING...AS LESS RAIN IS ABSORBED INTO THE GROUND. THIS ALLOWS MORE RAIN TO RUN OFF INTO THE STREAMS. RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW. 3/3 BLACK RIVER BLACK ROCK AR 135% WHITE RIVER NEWPORT AR 120% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES FOR THE BLACK/WHITE BASIN RESERVOIRS ARE GIVEN BELOW. 3/3 BULL SHOALS RES. AR 100% NORFORK RES. AR 100% GREERS FERRY RES. AR 100% OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 30000 CFC WHICH IS 39% OF NORMAL COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...WHICH IS ALSO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN. STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH SOIL MOISTURE HAS SEEN MINOR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST MONTH...IT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOW IS GIVEN. 3/3 OUACHITA RIVER CAMDEN AR 30% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES ARE GIVEN BELOW. 3/3 LAKE OUACHITA AR 100% DEGRAY RES. AR 100% LAKE GRESSON AR 100% ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... A MATURE LA NINA IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2011. GENERALLY RAINFALL OVER WEAKENING LA NINA OR NEUTRAL EPISODES ARE NEAR NORMAL. THE 30-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOW EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ARKANSAS AND WHITE RIVER BASINS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOW EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS OUTLOOK ENCOMPASSES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SPRING MONTHS OF MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY. IN ARKANSAS...NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THESE 3 MONTHS OF SPRING VARIES BETWEEN 14 AND 18 INCHES. WEAKENING LA NINA CONDITIONS CAN PRODUCE A PERIOD OF EARLY SPRING SEVERE WEATHER IN ARKANSAS. DURING THESE PERIODS OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER...IMPRESSIVE QUANTITIES OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER SMALLER WATERSHEDS. LOCALIZED...HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME...EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT. THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING. ...CONCLUSION... OVERALL THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET SPRING. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR GET STRONGER. THIS COULD BRING ABOUT A WETTER SPRING...WITH AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING. HOWEVER IF THESE WETTER CONDITIONS ARE COMBINED WITH CURRENTLY LOW SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW LEVELS...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESSENED. GIVEN THAT RAINFALL AVERAGES FOR MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY ARE GENERALLY THE THREE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR...SOME LEVEL OF FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2011 CALLS FOR ONGOING DROUGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE. FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION. $$ 61