000 FGUS74 KEWX 171435 ESFEWX TXC055-091-123-177-187-209-259-265-180835- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 935 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT GONZALES HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE CHANCE THE GUADALUPE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 18.5 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 03/16/2011 - 06/14/2011 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- GUADALUPE RIVER HUNT 10.0 7.7 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.4 10.0 11.9 COMFORT 21.0 3.4 6.2 8.4 9.4 10.3 11.3 12.3 13.8 16.4 SPRING BRANCH 30.0 2.2 3.4 4.5 5.1 5.7 7.0 9.9 13.9 16.9 ABV COMAL NB 7.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 5.8 BLW COMAL NB 13.0 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 12.4 13.1 SEGUIN 19.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 4.1 6.2 11.1 GONZALES 31.0 12.1 12.4 13.5 16.1 18.5 21.0 27.4 32.7 38.2 CUERO 24.0 8.1 9.2 10.3 13.8 16.1 18.0 20.0 24.4 30.9 BLANCO RIVER WIMBERLEY 13.0 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.4 7.4 SAN MARCOS RIVER LULING 20.0 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.2 8.7 12.8 15.2 18.6 24.3 PLUM CREEK NEAR LULING 23.0 4.9 5.9 7.5 11.8 15.7 19.1 20.7 22.4 23.7 PEACH CREEK BLW DILWORTH 23.0 9.4 9.8 10.7 12.4 14.0 16.9 18.2 20.5 26.0 SANDIES CREEK NEAR WESTHOFF 21.0 3.0 4.0 6.8 8.0 10.5 13.0 15.0 17.5 22.9 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?EWX (INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH. $$