000
FGUS75 KABQ 231733
ESFABQ
NMC027-241800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 AM MDT WED AUG 23 2006

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NEW MEXICO RETURNING SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY...

ANOTHER PERIOD WITH CONCENTRATED OR FOCUSED HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AS SOON AS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. THIS
MAY SPECIFICALLY IMPACT LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTIES WHERE LAKES AND
SMALL RESERVOIRS REMAIN AT THEIR SPILLWAY LEVELS. WATER MANAGERS IN
LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTY ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE STEADY WATER
RELEASES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN ORDER TO HAVE THE ADDITIONAL
STORAGE CAPACITY TO RECEIVE HEAVIEST RUNOFF THAT IS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND RANDOM EVENTS COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

BY SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DRAMATIC RETURN OF CONCENTRATED OR
FOCUSED HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHARP AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINS IS NOW EXPECTED TO FORM FROM SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FREQUENCY AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL BOTH INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ADDS THE EXTRA
ELEMENT OF MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THESE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT REPEATING HEAVY RAIN OF MORE THAN
3 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WILL COVER LARGE AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
COULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA AROUND RUIDOSO AND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN HAS ALREADY RECEIVED GENERALLY 10 TO 14
INCHES OF RAIN DURING AUGUST WHICH IS 300 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AUGUST RAINFALL.

LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL DAILY INFORMATION AND UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN SITUATION. THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES IN ALBUQUERQUE AND EL PASO ARE AVAILABLE AT THESE WEB
SITES...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ  AND    WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ

$$

03