000 FGUS75 KABQ 042050 ESFABQ NMC001>061-312359- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 300 PM MDT THU MAY 4 2006 WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE SPRING CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW RUNOFF. FORECAST FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDE 31 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO COCHITI LAKE AND 11 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE. OTHER FORECAST FLOWS INTO RESERVOIRS RANGE FROM 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT EL VADO LAKE TO 9 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO JEMEZ CANYON RESERVOIR. INFLOW TO CONCHAS LAKE IS FORECAST TO BE 9 PERCENT OF NORMAL WHILE INFLOW TO SANTA ROSA LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NAVAJO RESERVOIR IS EXPECTING 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOW WHILE FLOW IN THE ANIMAS RIVER IS FORECAST AT 68 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FLOW FROM STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND FEEDING INTO THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 13 TO 37 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE CURRENT FORECAST FLOWS FOR MARCH THROUGH JULY IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ARE THE LOWEST SINCE 2002...WHILE THE FLOW FORECASTS FOR THE UPPER PECOS AND UPPER CANADIAN RIVERS ARE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST IN MAY 2002. PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING APRIL 2006 RANGED FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT A FEW PLACES IN THE FAR WEST TO BELOW NORMAL OR WELL BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. NEW MEXICO SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2005 THROUGH APRIL 2006...HAS BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE. IN ALBUQUERQUE...THE NOVEMBER 2005 THROUGH APRIL 2006 SIX MONTH PERIOD...WITH 0.41 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...WAS THE THIRD DRIEST SIX MONTH PERIOD ON RECORD. ONLY THE OCTOBER 1903 THROUGH MARCH 1904 AND NOVEMBER 1903 THROUGH APRIL 1904 PERIODS WERE DRIER...WITH 0.30 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING BOTH SIX MONTH PERIODS. SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AS OF MAY 1 WAS 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ONLY 14 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IS 51 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 37 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF MAY 1 2005. IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAIN HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT AS OF MAY 1 2006 WAS 41 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 29 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND CANADIAN BASIN...91 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE PECOS BASIN... AND ABOVE NORMAL AT NAVAJO LAKE. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE IS 48 PERCENT OF THE 1971 TO 2000 NORMAL AND 131 PERCENT OF LAST YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 120 PERCENT OF THE 30 YEAR NORMAL...AND 111 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO. THIS WATER SUPPLY FORECAST REFLECTS CONDITIONS AS OF MAY 1 2006 AND ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS SPRING. SNOTEL DATA AS OF MAY 1 2006 OBSERVED 1971-2000 AVERAGE WATER CONTENT WATER CONTENT INCHES INCHES CHAMITA SNOTEL 0.0 1.4 RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL 0.0 2.2 CUMBRES TRESTLE SNOTEL 12.9 23.3 WOLF CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL 25.7 36.8 $$ EAP