000 FGUS75 KABQ 051939 ESFABQ NMC001>061-302359- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 200 PM MST THU APR 5 2007 WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST THROUGH THE SPRING SNOW MELT SEASON CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RUNOFF FLOWS IN MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS OF NEW MEXICO...WHILE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ORIGINATE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. AN EARLY START TO THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF SEASON DURING MARCH CAME AT THE EXPENSE OF A DIMINISHING SNOWPACK ALONG WITH A LACK OF MARCH SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. RUNOFF INTO THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD PROVIDE 62 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOW TO COCHITI LAKE AND ONLY 46 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE. OTHER RESERVOIR FORECAST INFLOWS RANGE FROM 17 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT BLUEWATER LAKE TO 85 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT SANTA ROSA LAKE. FLOW FROM STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND FEEDING INTO THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 67 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING MARCH 2007 RANGED FROM WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION...TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE STORMS THAT GENERATED THE TORNADO OUTBREAK ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER ON MARCH 23 ALSO PRODUCED BURSTS OF INTENSE RAINFALL IN EDDY...LEA...QUAY...CURRY...AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. MARCH PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2006 THROUGH MARCH 2007...RANGED FROM ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE...TO NEAR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MARCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WAS NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MID MARCH RESULTED IN MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS AS THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK BEGAN TO MELT EARLIER THAN USUAL. MARCH 2004 ALSO FEATURED A SIMILAR EARLY SNOW MELT AND STRONG EARLY RUNOFF. SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AS OF APRIL 1 WAS 59 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT 167 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO WHEN THERE WAS MINIMAL SNOW IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IS 59 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 89 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF APRIL 1 2006. IN THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE... SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT AS OF APRIL 1 2007 WAS 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 110 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND CANADIAN BASIN...NEAR NORMAL IN THE PECOS BASIN...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NAVAJO LAKE. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE IS 60 PERCENT OF THE 1971 TO 2000 NORMAL AND 119 PERCENT OF LAST YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 130 PERCENT OF THE 30 YEAR NORMAL...AND 106 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE REST OF SPRING. THE ODDS WOULD TILT FURTHER TOWARD DRY SPRING CONDITIONS SHOULD THE TREND TOWARD A LA NINA EPISODE IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC CONTINUE. SNOTEL DATA SNOTEL SITE APRIL 1 1971-2000 AVERAGE WATER CONTENT WATER CONTENT INCHES INCHES CHAMITA 0.9 9.2 RED RIVER 5.5 7.3 CUMBRES TRESTLE 20.1 26.9 WOLF CREEK SUMMIT 28.7 33.3 $$ EAP