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FGUS75 KABQ 101618
ESFABQ

NMC001>011-019-021-027-028-031-033-037>049-053>061-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
915 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW 
MEXICO IS LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO 
IS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL RUNOFF TO NEAR RECORD LOW RUNOFF THROUGH
THE SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON.

THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SNOWPACK AS
OF MARCH 1 2006 WAS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 1
SET IN 1981.

SNOWPACK AS OF MARCH 1 2006 IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WAS THE LOWEST ON RECORD FOR MARCH 1. THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD LOW SNOWPACK FOR MARCH 1 WAS SET IN 1999.

THE FOUR MONTH PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 2005 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2006 WAS
THE SECOND DRIEST NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY PERIOD ON RECORD FOR
NEW MEXICO. ONLY THE NOVEMBER 1903 TO FEBRUARY 1904 PERIOD WAS
DRIER.

ANY SIGNIFICANT STREAM FLOODING THIS SPRING WOULD RESULT FROM A
SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK THAT HAS MISSED NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE
WINTER...COUPLED WITH A STRONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN ABSENT SO FAR. THE ODDS FAVOR A DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL SPRING PRECIPITATION PATTERN.

RESERVOIR STORAGES RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT NAVAJO LAKE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND AT ABIQUIU LAKE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...TO NORMAL OR
WELL BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE. 

THE WEAK LA NINA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS SPRING...
WOULD FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEW MEXICO INTO MAY.

$$

EAP