000
FGUS75 KABQ 091942
ESFABQ

NMC001>011-019-021-027-028-031-033-037>049-053>061-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1230 PM MST FRI MAR 9 2007

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW 
MEXICO IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME. 

THE CURRENT SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO CHAMA BASIN TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WEST OF RUIDOSO IS
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS TIME.

EVEN IN THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS WHERE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
COVER IS ABOVE NORMAL...THERE IS LESS SNOW THAN THERE WAS AT THIS
TIME TWO YEARS AGO WHEN SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF DID RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. 

ANY SIGNIFICANT STREAM FLOODING THAT WOULD OCCUR THIS SPRING WOULD
REQUIRE A STEADY PERIOD OF RAINFALL ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK...AN
OCCURRANCE THAT WOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT. THE RAPID DEMISE
OF EL NINO RESULTS IN A DIMINISHED HOPE FOR A WET SPRING ANYWHERE
IN NEW MEXICO. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WOULD TILT FURTHER TOWARD
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD A LA NINA EPISODE DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EXPECTED.

RESERVOIR STORAGE RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL IN 
THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. NAVAJO RESERVOIR ON THE SAN JUAN
RIVER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS HOLDS 127 PERCENT OF NORMAL STORAGE
BUT SNOW MELT RUNOFF FROM SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS FORECAST TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE.

$$

EAP