000 FGUS75 KABQ 081947 ESFABQ NMC001>061-312359- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 100 PM MST THU MAR 8 2007 WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST THROUGH THE SPRING SNOW MELT SEASON INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL RUNOFF FLOWS IN MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS OF NEW MEXICO...WHILE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ORIGINATE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. FORECAST FLOW IN THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD PROVIDE 85 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOW TO COCHITI LAKE AND 77 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE. OTHER RESERVOIR FORECAST INFLOWS RANGE FROM 56 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT BLUEWATER LAKE TO 94 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT SANTA ROSA LAKE. FLOW FROM STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO SHOULD RANGE FROM 90 TO 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING FEBRUARY 2007 RANGED FROM WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...TO BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE GILA BASIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OF LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTIES. FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WAS BELOW AVERAGE. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2006 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2007... RANGED FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE...AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH FEBRUARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WAS NEAR AVERAGE. SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AS OF MARCH 1 WAS 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND 410 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IS 77 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 176 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF MARCH 1 2006. THE MARCH 1 2007 SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN RANKS AS THE FIFTH BEST MARCH 1 SNOWPACK SINCE 1995. LAST YEARS MARCH 1 SNOWPACK WAS ONE OF THE WORST ON RECORD. MARCH 1 SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AT 108 PERCENT OF AVERAGE WAS THE SECOND BEST OF THE PAST 10 YEARS... A PERIOD WHERE NEAR RECORD LOW SNOWPACK WAS OBSERVED IN 1999... 2000...2002 AND 2006. IN THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN... SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT AS OF MARCH 1 2007 WAS 92 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 230 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND THE CANADIAN BASIN...NEAR NORMAL IN THE PECOS BASIN...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NAVAJO LAKE. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE IS 57 PERCENT OF THE 1971 TO 2000 NORMAL AND 111 PERCENT OF LAST YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 127 PERCENT OF THE 30 YEAR NORMAL...AND 102 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO. EL NINO CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY WARM WATER IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... HAVE DISSIPATED. HOPE FOR A WETTER THAN NORMAL SPRING...OVER AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WAS BASED ON EL NINO PERSISTING THROUGH THE SPRING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW FORECAST FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST MID MARCH...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING WOULD TILT TOWARD DRY SHOULD A LA NINA EPISODE DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPECTED. SNOTEL DATA SNOTEL SITE MARCH 1 1971-2000 AVERAGE WATER CONTENT WATER CONTENT INCHES INCHES CHAMITA 8.1 9.5 RED RIVER 9.5 6.6 CUMBRES TRESTLE 19.3 21.8 WOLF CREEK SUMMIT 23.8 26.0 $$ EAP