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NMC001>011-019-021-027-028-031-033-037>049-053>061-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MST THU MAR 6 2008

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW 
MEXICO RANGES FROM MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE FAR NORTH TO LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING FEBRUARY 2008 WAS 150 TO 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WERE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. 

WINTER PRECIPITATION...DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...WAS MUCH GREATER
THAN NORMAL WEST AND NORTH OF A RATON TO SILVER CITY LINE WHERE THE
STORM TRACK WAS MOST ACTIVE. EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RATON TO SILVER
CITY LINE...PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY AND FEBRUARY RANGED FROM
WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN AS OF MARCH 1 WAS 147 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND 147
PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER
CONTENT IS 158 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 207 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF
MARCH 1 2007.

THE MARCH 1 2008 SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE NEW MEXICO PORTION
OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN RANKS AS THE BEST SINCE 1993. THE SAME CAN
BE SAID FOR THE MARCH 1 2008 SNOWPACK IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN. 

FOR AT LEAST TWO SNOTEL SITES IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE MARCH 1
2008 SNOW WATER CONTENT IS THE SECOND HIGHEST OF RECORD FOR MARCH 1.

AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING THIS
SPRING DUE TO SNOW MELT RUNOFF IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ARE

...THE ANIMAS RIVER IN SAN JUAN COUNTY FROM NORTH OF FARMINGTON TO
     CEDAR HILL...
...THE RIO BRAZOS AND UPPER RIO CHAMA IN NORTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA
     COUNTY...
...RIVERS AND STREAMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAOS COUNTY...

THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF PROCESS THIS SPRING WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE BEST SCENARIO...LEAST
RISK FOR FLOODING...WOULD BE FOR ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM DRY
WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL INTERLUDES THROUGH SPRING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT RUNOFF SURGES FOLLOWED BY TIMES OF LESSER FLOWS.

A COLDER THAN NORMAL SPRING FOLLOWED BY AN UNUSAULLY HOT SPELL IN
MAY WOULD FORCE THE SNOWPACK TO MELT MORE RAPIDLY OVER A SHORTER
PERIOD OF TIME...INCREASING THE FLOOD THREAT.

A STEADY RAINFALL OVER SEVERAL DAYS ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK IN
APRIL OR MAY...A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT GIVEN THE CURRENT LA NINA
CONDITIONS...WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.

HOWEVER...IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WEST OF RUIDOSO IS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IN THIS AREA IS LOW. 

$$

EAP