000 FGUS75 KABQ 062123 ESFABQ NMC001>061-312359- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 230 PM MST MON MAR 6 2006 WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE SPRING SNOW MELT SEASON CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW RUNOFF. FORECAST FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDE 26 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO COCHITI LAKE AND 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE. OTHER FORECAST FLOWS INTO RESERVOIRS RANGE FROM 34 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT EL VADO LAKE TO 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO JEMEZ CANYON RESERVOIR. INFLOW TO CONCHAS LAKE IS FORECAST TO BE 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL WHILE INFLOW TO SANTA ROSA LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE 13 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NAVAJO RESERVOIR IS EXPECTING 32 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOW...WHILE FLOW IN THE ANIMAS RIVER IS FORECAST AT 62 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FLOW FROM STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND FEEDING INTO THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 31 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING FEBRUARY 2006 RANGED FROM WELL BELOW AVERAGE TO NONE. STATEWIDE...NOVEMBER 2005 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2006 WAS THE SECOND DRIEST NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY PERIOD ON RECORD...ONLY THE 1903 TO 1904 PERIOD WAS DRIER. IN SANTA FE...ALBUQUERQUE...AND TAOS...NOVEMBER 2005 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2006 WAS THE DRIEST NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1868...1893...AND 1914 RESPECTIVELY. NEW MEXICO SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2005 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2006...HAS BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH FEBRUARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO HAS ALSO BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AS OF MARCH 1 WAS 24 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 18 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IS 44 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 28 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF MARCH 1 2005. LOOKING AT HISTORICAL MARCH 1 SNOWPACK AMOUNTS IN THE NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN GOING BACK TO 1995...THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IS FAR WORSE THAN 2000 WHEN THE BASIN AVERAGE WAS 43 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SNOWPACK IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF MARCH 1 IS ONLY 19 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW SET IN 1981. THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN IS THE LOWEST ON RECORD FOR MARCH 1...THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW WAS SET IN 1999. IN THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN... SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT AS OF MARCH 1 2006 WAS 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ONLY 27 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND CANADIAN BASIN...81 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE PECOS BASIN AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NAVAJO LAKE. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN... STORAGE IS 51 PERCENT OF THE 1971 TO 2000 NORMAL AND 159 PERCENT OF LAST YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 124 PERCENT OF THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AND 137 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO. THIS WATER SUPPLY FORECAST REFLECTS CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 1 2006 AND ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS SPRING. SNOW COURSE READINGS AS OF MARCH 1 2006 OBSERVED 1971-2000 AVERAGE WATER CONTENT WATER CONTENT INCHES INCHES CHAMITA SNOTEL 4.0 9.5 RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL 2.0 6.6 CUMBRES TRESTLE SNOTEL 10.0 21.8 WOLF CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL 10.1 26.0 $$ EAP