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FGUS75 KABQ 072118
ESFABQ

NMC001>061-282359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
200 PM MST WED FEB 7 2007
   
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO

THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.

THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST THROUGH THE SPRING SNOW MELT SEASON RANGES
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RUNOFF IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NEW MEXICO TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF FOR RIVERS
AND STREAMS THAT ORIGINATE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDE 102 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO
COCHITI LAKE AND 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE.
OTHER RESERVOIR FORECAST INFLOWS RANGE FROM 89 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT
NAVAJO LAKE TO 108 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT SANTA ROSA LAKE. 

FLOW FROM STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO SHOULD RANGE FROM 117 TO 162 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING JANUARY 2007 RANGED FROM
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND IN THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2006 THROUGH JANUARY 2007...RANGED
FROM BELOW AVERAGE IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE...AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH JANUARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS ABOVE
AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST COLORADO SEASONAL PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN AS OF FEBRUARY 1 WAS 105 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND 311
PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK
WATER CONTENT IS 79 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 162 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL
OF FEBRUARY 1 2006.

THE 2007 FEBRUARY 1 SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE NEW MEXICO PORTION
OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN RANKS AS THE FOURTH BEST FEBRUARY 1 SNOWPACK
SINCE 1995. ONLY IN 1997...1995...AND 2005 WAS THE EARLY FEBRUARY
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK GREATER DURING THE PAST 13 YEARS. LAST YEARS
FEBRUARY SNOWPACK WAS THE LOWEST SINCE 1995 AND ONE OF THE WORST ON
RECORD.

BOTH THE RED RIVER PASS #2 SNOTEL SITE AND TAOS CANYON SNOW COURSE
SITE CURRENT FEBRUARY SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IS THE FOURTH BEST
SINCE FEBRUARY MEASUREMENTS BEGAN IN 1940.

IN THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...
SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2007 WAS 102 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND 236 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO.

NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN AND THE CANADIAN BASIN...NEAR NORMAL IN THE PECOS BASIN...AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NAVAJO LAKE. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE
IS 55 PERCENT OF THE 1971 TO 2000 NORMAL AND 109 PERCENT OF LAST
YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR
STORAGE IS 124 PERCENT OF THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AND 102 PERCENT OF THE
STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO.

THIS WATER SUPPLY FORECAST REFLECTS CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 1
2007 AND ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SPRING.

                                           SNOTEL DATA

SNOTEL SITE                       FEBRUARY 1      1971-2000 AVERAGE
                                 WATER CONTENT      WATER CONTENT
                                    INCHES           INCHES
CHAMITA                               6.0              6.7 
RED RIVER                             8.7              5.0   
CUMBRES TRESTLE                      15.0             16.0 
WOLF CREEK SUMMIT                    20.4             20.1
   
$$

EAP