000
ACUS11 KWNS 092334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092334 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-100100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MN...SE SD...NW IA...NE NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 092334Z - 100100Z

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MN SSWWD INTO SERN
SD AND NE NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER FAR NE SD WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN SD AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWD
INTO NW IA. BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES...THE RUC IS ANALYZING
MODERATE INSTABILITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NRN
END OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN CNTRL MN. OTHER STORMS APPEAR LIKELY
TO INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE NORFOLK
NEB AREA. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 65-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. IF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE...LARGE HAIL AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LINEAR
NATURE OF THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...LINE-SEGMENTS MAY BE THE
PREFERRED STORM MODE. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 07/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   41839750 41939822 42449847 43059780 43929676 44779610
            45429581 45519541 45319517 44919500 44059502 42879577
            42149672 41839750