000
ACUS03 KWNS 140728
SWODY3
SPC AC 140726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

SWLY TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRANSPORT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SERN U.S.
BY FRIDAY.  THIS MOISTENING PROCESS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 
IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH VERY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOULD BE MORE THAN BUOYANT ENOUGH FOR ROBUST DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
DEEP WLY FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. 
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS COULD
PROPAGATE WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WITH RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT.  LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST/FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FL PANHANDLE INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY3 TIME PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES FROM DAY2 CONVECTION EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK.  IF IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ISSUED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 05/14/2008