000
ACUS02 KWNS 140548
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX
COAST...ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO MIDDLE TN...

...GULF STATES...

WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER SERN AZ WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING AND LIFTING INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE THURSDAY.  ALTHOUGH MODEST MID-HIGH
LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN STATES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL AND
FOCUSED ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT SIGNIFICANT.  EVEN
SO...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP...ALBEIT IN A SEEMINGLY
RANDOM FASHION...AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNDOUBTEDLY UNCAPPED.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES FROM
SERN TX INTO SRN AL.  NEEDLESS TO SAY LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE THAT
STEEP AND MODELS ARE MOST CERTAINLY HANDLING CONVECTIVE EPISODES IN
ERROR.  MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A CONTINUATION FROM LATE DAY1 ACTIVITY. 
THESE STORMS SHOULD EASILY PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION GIVEN DEEP WSWLY FLOW AND ADDED BUOYANCY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING.  ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS STRUCTURES.

...ELSEWHERE...

STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS
OF MN AS WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME.  COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THIS REGION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 05/14/2008