000 FXUS04 KWBC 252200 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 500 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID NOV 26/0000 UTC THRU NOV 29/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... UPDATED..LITTLE CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS FL CONTINUED WITH THE 18Z NCEP AND 12Z ECMWF AND CMC RUNS SHOWING SGFNT DIFFERENCES. OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE THOUGH MODIFIED FCST EARLY IN PD TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTRW..LITTLE CHANGED SEEMED NECESSARY ACROSS REMAINDER OF NATION. ...GTLKS/OH VLY... XCP FOR SOME VRY SLGT TIMING DIFFS..LATEST MDL SOLNS ARE OTRW IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF MID/UPR LVL TROF DIGGING INTO THE GTLKS AND OH/TN VLYS THIS PD..WITH THE INITIALLY STG H5 CLOSED LOW OPENING UP LTR IN THE PD BUT WITH THE H5 TROF TAKING ON A SLGT NEG TILT BY THU EVE. SYS WON'T HAVE MUCH MSTR TO WORK WITH AS LOW LVL FLO HAS TURNED TO THE W OR NW BHND THE LEAD SYS NOW MOVG THRU THE ERN GTLKS..BUT STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/FORCING WL MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MSTR IS AVBL TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LGT TO MDT PCPN AMTS FM PTNS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE GTLKS AND UPR OH VLY. LATEST NAM AND GFS QPFS WERE QUITE SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY. PLS SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOWFALL POTNL HERE. ...PAC NW... THE SLGTLY SLOER NAM SOLN IS THE OUTLIER HERE..SO LEANED TWDS SLGTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS..CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF HIRES MASS FIELD SOLNS REGARDING PUSH OF MID LVL HGT FALLS AND CDFNT INTO THE PAC NW..ESP LTR THU AFTN. ALTHO AM GOING WITH THE SLGTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYS..FEATURE WL PUSH THRU THE REGION SLOLY..WITH AXES OF PWS GTR THAN 1 INCH AND ONSHORE FLO OF 30-40KTS ALSO SINKING SLOLY SEWD WITH THE FNTL PUSH. THIS SHLD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF HVIER PCPN FM WRN WA AND WRN OR EWD/NEWD INTO THE WA CASCADES..WITH SOME GTR THAN 2 INCH RNFL AMTS LIKELY SWRN WA/NWRN OR CASCADES..AS PER GFS QPF SOLN. ...FL... STILL NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT HERE QPF-WISE..WITH THE GFS QUITE WET ACRS THE SRN FL PENIN..THE GFSP LESS WET..AND THE NAM AND ECMWF HIRES EVEN A BIT DRIER. SATL PIX SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST S/WV IN THE SRN BRANCH MOVG INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEX ATTM..SO HVIER RNFL AMTS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF DURG THE WED EVE HRS AS ENERGY CONTS LIFTING ENEWD THRU THE FL PENIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS AGAIN BEING IMPACTED BY FEEDBACK PROBS..SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS LOW. NAM QPF ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS TOO LGT..GIVEN HI MSTR IN PLACE..SO MANUAL PROG ENDED UP GOING HVIER THAN THE NAM AND LIGHTER THAN THE GFS..SOMEWHAT IN LN WITH THE ECMWF HIRES QPF. WITH PASSAGE OF SRN BRANCH ENERGY WED EVE AND DIGGING NRN STREAM H5 TROF ON THU..FNTL BNDRY SHLD GET PUSHED S AND E THRU THE FL PENIN..KEEPING THE MORE MDT RAINS CONFINED TO THE SERN PTNS OF THE PENIN. DAYS 2/3... IN GENERAL THE PATTERNS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE CONSISTENT IN THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT VER SIGNIFICANT...EXAMPLE WOULD BE THE H5 LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY...BUT VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON PCPN. NORTHEAST STATES... THE LARGEST MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE NORTHEAST AFFECTS NY/PA. THE NAM SHOWS GOOD DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN...BUT IS WEAK ON THE PW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STILL...THE QPF IS SIGNIFCANT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF EFFICIENT PCPN WITH A COLD UPPER CIRCULATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND FOG TODAY... COMING TOGETHER TO EFFECTIVELY GENERATE MORE PCPN THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED. THE GFS DOES NOT PLAY THIS AS STRONGLY...BUT THE EC SUPPORTS THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE SOLUTION CHOSEN HERE WAS TO GO WITH THE NAM/EC CONCEPT WHILE DIMINISHING THE NAM WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT.., AND SUPPORTED IN A MILD WAY BY THE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLES...AND GO WITH A CORE OF .25 TO .60 INCH IN CNTRL NY AND ERN PA FOR THU NIGHT THRU SAT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A NEW ENGLAND CORE IN NH. HPC PROGS WILL ENHANCE THE QPF WITH RESPECT TO NAM AND FOLLOW A PATH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/EC/BC ENSEMBLES. BY DAY 3...FRI NIGHT THRU SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HPS QPF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM MODEL CONSENSUS. ...PAC NORTHWEST/NRN CA THROUGH NRN ROCKIES... ALL THE MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE SAME SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHWEST. ALL SHOW THE MAJOR TROUGH SPLITTING FROM THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE GLF AK AND MOVING INTO THE NW COAST THU NIGHT. THE CORE OF HPS QPF WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE BC ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS EC AND GFS. HPC SHOS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS REASONABLY SMALL. THE SECONDARY TERRAIN INDUCED MAX IN NORTHERN ID IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS MODEL RUNS. BY DAY 3 THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MAJOR RIDGE AND INTO THE EXTREME NW...NAM DOES NOT REFLECT THIS. SINCE THIS TYPE PATTERN IS MORE RELIABLY PICKED UP BY THE GFS AND EC THE HPC QPF WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. DAY 3 QPF WILL EXCEED .5 INCH IN THE CASCADES...BUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIC WILL SHOW AMOUNTS CLOSER TO .5 INCH DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHWEST... DEVELOPIONG H5 LOW IN SW SHOULD GENERATE SOME DAY 3 PCPN.BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLES ARE NOT STRONG WITH THIS...BUT EC AND NAM HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS...AND THE 12Z GFS HAS JOINED THE TREND. THIS IS AN AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON. TERRY/KELLY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 27/00Z 0.01 499694 496689 493684 486682 480680 473679 469679 466681 462685 457686 455686 452687 448689 445692 439697 435700 427701 412703 399706 391707 385714 381718 378722 376724 377729 379732 383735 388740 394743 401745 406746 411748 414751 416754 419756 423759 425762 428763 430766 431771 428774 420777 411781 403786 396791 381804 377810 377816 379821 383823 386827 386830 383839 381847 376854 374862 376864 376867 376872 381873 391879 395887 398894 401905 404917 408928 412934 418939 423941 433940 442936 450931 456925 467910 481878 485869 486861 487848 487842 490837 495830 497821 498812 497800 497795 499789 503779 505769 506760 503745 499734 494727 491720 489717 488713 489712 497708 498705 499700 499694 0.01 540207 539199 536193 530183 524174 517167 509160 503157 497158 490162 487165 485169 480182 473192 468199 462205 448220 441227 435232 419242 412247 407252 399261 394270 391276 391284 392287 396290 402290 407289 414285 422282 425282 428284 429293 430298 434308 440315 445317 448317 453314 456311 462301 467291 471280 477267 481262 486261 491263 495268 497273 499276 503282 506284 508283 512280 516281 523257 521253 519247 517239 515234 513228 510223 508218 506213 503208 504203 507201 513204 515206 519210 523216 526219 531222 535220 538213 0.01 365727 362721 357721 348723 331730 291753 280759 273765 265770 258776 247789 241796 238801 235810 233819 232827 232834 237842 240844 245844 251846 256847 261845 290842 293833 298826 312813 318807 322798 327790 329784 347768 354762 359755 363748 365739 366731 365727 0.01 290084 290079 288075 286070 277062 272056 269050 264038 261032 257028 253027 249029 247036 249046 251051 256063 259069 262075 267080 272084 276087 283090 288087 290084 0.25 520269 519265 519264 517260 514259 513261 513266 516269 518271 520269 0.25 528199 527193 524188 519180 513173 507169 501167 497167 492174 490180 490187 488193 485196 477202 471206 464212 461216 454223 447229 435237 428243 422249 418256 420262 429262 432262 434265 435269 438277 443284 446286 449286 452284 459278 468266 475257 481250 490237 499242 502240 504236 504229 503225 499218 496212 495206 493194 503187 506186 509187 511190 515193 520195 528199 0.25 462841 462837 460835 459834 450834 444836 439839 431846 427850 418854 411858 412870 412881 414889 415901 419904 426908 432909 437907 439905 441897 442887 444879 447872 451867 456859 459851 462841 0.25 332757 332754 331754 327753 325754 322754 319755 318758 318759 317762 316764 315766 316769 318770 321769 324769 326767 328764 330762 331761 332757 332757 0.25 306795 305789 301787 298788 296790 291793 289797 287800 286804 285808 286810 291811 296808 300805 302802 304799 306795 0.25 283795 283790 281787 277784 273783 267784 260786 254790 246798 242806 240816 241828 245831 250829 257825 263824 270821 271816 272811 274805 280798 283795 0.50 499232 498223 497219 492212 490207 487204 480205 467214 460220 454227 448233 442236 435241 430248 431254 436255 440258 442261 446270 452273 457271 460268 465264 477250 480244 481240 483234 485228 499232 0.50 448852 446849 444849 442851 440855 443857 446855 448852 0.50 434883 433879 432876 431875 428873 426874 424878 423878 422883 421884 421887 421891 422895 424896 427896 429896 430896 432894 433891 433887 434885 434883 0.50 273796 269791 263790 256794 251797 247802 245808 244814 246818 249817 254813 260811 264809 268803 272799 273796 1.00 487219 487214 482210 479210 476211 473215 466222 461229 453235 450239 448242 448246 451259 454262 458262 465256 471249 478239 476225 484221 487219 1.50 474237 473234 470233 468231 468230 467231 464231 461233 458236 457238 456240 455244 455248 455252 455253 457257 461255 464251 467248 468246 470245 472241 474237 2.00 466244 469240 467236 464236 463238 462242 461246 462248 463247 465245 466244 24HR QP VT 28/00Z 0.01 505694 502681 498669 492655 487643 483632 480628 476627 464619 460617 457618 454618 451620 441637 434645 429651 414667 398677 390683 382691 376697 375700 376706 375709 373714 368721 361726 356731 349737 344743 341749 338757 339761 342763 347768 353773 350781 348784 347789 348797 350800 352803 356803 360802 369799 377799 374800 370802 367807 362813 360815 356819 353825 353835 355838 358840 363835 368833 373842 383854 389860 394864 400868 407870 413871 419871 437871 440871 444874 449873 452870 457869 463867 472865 480863 490856 496850 498841 496829 495816 495809 495803 497795 496782 494774 491767 490757 504721 506714 506705 505694 0.01 518278 519268 516259 512251 510246 510242 515235 517232 519225 522197 526190 529184 531165 534151 536141 538132 540117 540111 539103 538091 535078 532068 529062 526058 523057 518056 514058 511058 508062 502074 498083 497099 495108 493113 491114 481116 475116 472117 469119 466120 463122 456124 449128 435134 434136 432141 430151 430155 429159 425156 423152 418150 415151 412156 410160 411164 407173 403181 400189 399196 395198 391198 382193 378192 373193 371196 372199 378206 382210 385212 387216 385220 383223 378227 373234 372238 375246 378251 383258 388262 395264 400265 416268 421269 427270 434269 440267 452262 458259 466259 470261 473264 479266 486268 490274 494281 500287 504289 508289 515286 0.01 433200 430199 430201 433200 433200 0.01 320055 314026 310020 305014 294006 291002 288999 286995 282990 276985 272983 268982 263982 257985 251988 247993 243999 240006 238013 238020 236027 237033 240039 248050 257060 265070 273081 281091 286093 293092 299089 306086 308084 310079 313072 317064 320055 0.01 276016 274013 273012 271010 270010 267010 265011 267013 268014 270015 273016 273017 276017 276016 0.25 491681 486672 478664 471658 464654 457653 448656 439661 430666 422674 416682 404698 400707 396716 394726 393730 395737 396742 392744 384744 379745 375749 372756 371765 367773 362782 363785 369783 384770 389767 393767 400771 414779 422782 431783 438782 443778 445773 448764 450759 454754 461747 469738 485721 490713 492702 492689 491681 0.25 532121 533116 531112 530111 528110 528111 525116 525117 525120 525122 528125 531124 532121 0.25 507226 510217 510212 509209 496204 493198 497194 502190 506186 509181 512175 512169 512162 509156 505151 503150 497150 491150 485150 479148 477151 474151 468150 461149 456151 451155 449154 444152 442154 442158 444160 448162 452163 455160 458155 465161 468166 472169 479181 488188 488194 484197 474202 465206 456210 446213 437214 431212 425216 417224 410222 403228 400232 397237 398243 401247 406252 410253 419255 431253 449246 458245 471248 477250 483253 486254 490254 491253 492248 492239 494235 498233 504230 507226 0.25 400796 398792 396793 394794 391795 389797 388797 386800 384802 383804 382805 379808 377810 377811 377814 378815 381814 384813 386811 388809 389809 391807 394804 396802 397801 398799 400796 0.50 489692 487685 483677 477672 468667 460665 451666 447667 442670 438675 432679 427681 422686 416695 410705 408715 406721 406726 409732 412736 420739 438740 446740 457736 465731 472724 482714 485711 488703 489697 489692 0.50 503220 502215 497209 486206 477208 467212 458214 454214 449215 431220 428222 425226 423230 418232 408233 406241 408245 414247 423249 439243 448239 452238 458237 465239 469241 475243 479244 480240 481235 483228 486226 498227 503220 0.50 498177 500173 500168 499165 498163 496161 493160 490159 488159 485158 482157 479158 478159 477163 478166 479168 480172 481173 483176 486178 489179 492180 494180 498178 498177 0.50 434760 433759 430762 429763 431762 433761 434760 0.50 428764 425764 423762 421761 419760 417758 416758 413757 411756 410756 407757 404759 403761 404764 407766 408767 411768 411769 415771 418772 421771 423769 425766 428764 1.00 477697 476692 474688 469684 459683 448683 440689 427699 423705 421711 419718 419721 421725 424728 429729 439730 446729 451728 458723 463718 467713 473707 476704 477700 477697 1.00 492171 490168 487168 486170 487171 489173 492171 1.00 448225 448224 445223 443223 442225 439226 438228 436230 437233 440232 443232 444231 446228 447226 448225 1.00 425242 424240 421240 418240 416239 415239 415240 418241 421242 424243 425242 1.50 464698 460698 457698 453697 448696 444698 438701 435706 432711 431717 436720 439722 444722 449721 454717 457713 460707 462704 464698 24HR QP VT 29/00Z 0.01 511678 504661 501655 497650 493645 488641 485638 483633 478625 474617 471614 467614 463614 451620 444626 441629 438630 433636 428641 423646 421650 416663 414668 412669 409672 397678 393682 388687 387693 388700 393718 396725 400730 404733 408733 413735 416736 417739 416754 416759 415765 414771 411775 406780 400783 395785 392788 386793 384797 384801 385804 387807 390807 403803 408805 413809 416812 421813 425812 428808 431795 435781 437775 441770 451767 457766 464764 477758 483753 488748 494739 498732 502726 508711 510703 511700 510695 511678 0.01 533230 520225 514222 506218 496209 491205 483202 473201 471201 472197 475196 476192 478186 477181 474176 480173 495174 502176 507177 510175 514171 517164 516156 514151 511147 511140 515134 522120 529102 530094 532090 535075 535062 535048 534036 532026 530019 527010 524003 522992 521979 519970 514949 510937 505927 501920 495914 490911 487910 483913 478927 475943 474952 473959 472970 472977 474988 477000 479013 479027 479035 476046 473051 468056 463062 459069 456076 453081 451084 449085 448082 448077 449067 448063 444060 437057 432055 427053 422053 416051 412050 407051 402054 388061 383064 376066 369065 365063 361062 357063 352065 341069 324069 307074 297078 291083 288087 286095 286105 287107 290107 297108 302111 304115 306117 310119 317120 325120 333121 342123 347125 363129 370128 376124 386116 394109 405104 410102 418101 421103 420104 417113 412112 409116 408118 411122 424129 434124 440124 441129 440133 435136 431142 428148 429156 431164 436169 440173 438182 436204 429204 423201 420201 421204 423211 422218 419221 418226 414241 414246 412252 412257 413258 418261 421264 422267 424272 427275 431282 439296 445302 448305 450309 455315 459316 462320 469325 476324 493333 0.01 418161 420156 420151 418143 416140 413141 408143 404140 392137 387137 385141 382148 376161 373165 370167 364170 359171 351170 350169 348164 344161 339160 334159 328155 326153 323155 318152 310152 305154 303155 303159 305168 307172 312176 325183 337190 344193 350192 358194 365194 377206 389210 391209 394207 394203 396196 400186 403182 408177 410172 413168 418161 0.01 270971 268966 265965 260965 257967 250971 242976 237981 236987 238993 244998 250997 257991 262984 266977 269974 270971 0.25 497680 495672 492669 488665 484660 481657 477657 473656 467657 459660 453664 448669 446670 446674 445679 446687 448693 447698 445703 436713 431715 426719 426724 426729 428733 434741 438747 442750 450749 461746 470740 476736 481731 487723 491716 493709 496699 497691 497685 497680 0.25 523263 516255 510245 498225 491217 488214 482211 464213 455215 452218 445219 439223 435229 434237 434245 436249 442260 446266 454276 466292 468292 472290 482287 487290 489294 494305 501315 0.25 510012 511005 512998 510984 508974 504964 500966 495968 494978 493987 493993 493000 496009 499018 501023 504026 508024 510012 510012 0.25 493144 494140 493135 492134 489131 486130 484130 481133 480134 478137 477141 477142 477145 477146 480148 482149 485148 486147 488147 491146 493144 0.25 422715 421711 421707 419704 417701 415701 412701 408699 407699 404698 401699 400704 400705 400709 401712 402715 405718 406719 409720 413720 415720 416720 419719 421717 422715 0.25 446109 444107 441106 438108 438109 441112 444112 446109 0.50 517276 514275 512275 511275 508275 505276 502275 500275 499279 499284 499289 500289 500294 501296 502299 503302 505306 0.50 490686 487681 481679 476680 469686 464692 461700 458704 451710 446715 439721 437726 436732 438736 443741 448743 453743 459740 464736 476725 480719 485712 487706 489697 490686 0.50 505248 505243 501238 494231 490229 487230 482227 480222 481218 480217 470216 462217 456219 454222 446228 443232 442240 444242 449244 455247 458252 464260 468264 474266 481266 485270 490271 494271 496273 495264 489257 488251 484245 487239 492243 501250 505248 1.00 477698 474700 471705 468709 463715 457717 449722 447725 447729 449733 452734 459730 463724 470717 471715 472712 474710 476707 476703 477698 $$