000
FXUS01 KWBC 090825
PMDSPD
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
324 AM EST MON NOV 09 2009
 
VALID 12Z MON NOV 09 2009 - 00Z WED NOV 11 2009
 
HURRICANE IDA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NW FLORIDA. HEAVY
RAINS...HIGH WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAIN
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORM.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE IDA...SEE TPC UPDATES OR GO TO WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. 

THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA...ALLOWING THE STORM TO MOVE IN A
GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAKE LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND EASTWARD DURING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY EVENING...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL
OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AND MUCH OF NW FLORIDA AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. BY TUESDAY MORNING...HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS AS
IDA MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN. DURING TUESDAY...THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
STATES ON MONDAY EVENING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
USUAL LOWLAND RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

KOCIN

GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$