000
FXUS65 KVEF 091102
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
302 AM PST MON NOV 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED 
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE AT 130 AM 
AS OUR CWFA WAS BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE NEXT SLUG WAS 
ALREADY ENTERING CALIFORNIA AND HEADING EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED 
LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND 
THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS RIDGING 
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AND A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY 
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH 
AS THE NEVADA TEST SITE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT 
IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AVAILABLE TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL TAKE A 
CLOSER LOOK THEN. OTHERWISE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT PERIODS OF 
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AS 
THE SHORT TERM ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCOMING STORM MAY REACH 
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWFA...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE 
SIERRA ZONE LOOKS GOOD.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED STARTS THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING 
THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA BEFORE PASSING THROUGH 
EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE STILL BEING PROGGED WITH IT BUT MOSTLY MID 
LEVEL AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. WINDS AND 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES. 
TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT 
STILL NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND HENCE THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 
IN THE BREEZY RANGE. STILL...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE DROP FROM 
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF 9-13 DEGREES WILL BE NOTICEABLE. 
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...THE 
SIERRA...MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. I DID 
RAISE THE POPS A BIT OVER THE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH 
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL 
RUNS. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE STABLE CONDITIONS AND WARMING 
TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST BEHIND THE 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS UNDER 7 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL 
PATTERNS THROUGH MONDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS 
THROUGH MONDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. 
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS