000
FXUS65 KVEF 181740
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PST TUE NOV 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO RECORD OR 
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. 
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WEATHER REMAINS QUIET AND NO UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED THIS 
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 02Z 
WED AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WED...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN. A 
CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT 
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
238 AM PST TUE NOV 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...AGAIN NOT MUCH TO SAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
INTERMOUNTAIN STATES TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A 
DEGREE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH MEANS MORE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN 
OR TIED. STRONG RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY THE TIME WE REACH WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES ALONG THE NORTHERN NEVADA 
BORDER THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL BE FLIRTING WITH SOME 
RECORDS ESPECIALLY LAS VEGAS AND NEEDLES ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT 
HANDCUFF DAY SHIFT INTO HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE AND ALLOW THEM 
TO ANALYZE FORTHCOMING 12Z MODELS. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK INTO OUR SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY.             

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 00Z ECMWF FOR 
ITS MORE CONSISTENT LOOK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A POTENT 
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...MOVING 
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IMPACT 
TO THE AREA OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE 
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTING NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BRINGS NORTH WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER 
PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A 
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GEFS SPAGHETTI 
PLOTS TELL A TALE OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...TIMING AND TRACK 
OF LARGE...MEDIUM AND SMALL SCALE WEATHER FEATURES.
&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED 
TODAY. LAS VEGAS AND NEEDLES MAY CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH RECORDS 
WEDNESDAY. THE EXISTING RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS...

LOCATION             TUE 11/18    WED 11/19
--------             ---------    --------- 
LAS VEGAS NV /KLAS/  79 /1949/    78 /1976/
DAGGETT CA /KDAG/    83 /1995/    83 /2007/ 
NEEDLES CA /KEED/    84 /1995/    84 /2007/
BISHOP CA /KBIH/     77 /1976/    77 /2005/
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/STACHELSKI/PIERCE/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS