000 FXUS65 KTWC 091632 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST MON NOV 9 2009 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL OVER NORMAL WITH RELIEF EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF COOLER AND WINDIER WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. DRY SURFACE REGIME WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z GENERALLY IN THE LOWER-MID 30S. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 09/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY PROFILE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE NEAR 0.40 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 09/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED RIDGE ALONG THE ERN CONUS COAST AND DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. LIGHT-MODERATE WLY/NWLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SRN AZ. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. RIDGE TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TUE. INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS ACROSS SE PINAL AND WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES TUE AFTERNOON. RECEIPT OF 09/12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES 89 F AT TUCSON TUE...WHILE 09/00Z ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED TEMP IS 91 F AT TUCSON. THE UPSHOT... MAY NEED TO INCREASE FORECAST TEMPS TUCSON VICINITY EWD TUE...THOUGH WILL ADDRESS THIS ISSUE WITH THE AFTERNOON SUITE OF PRODUCTS. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE EWD WED INTO THUR AS PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SWD. SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ TO BE INCREASED MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPS...AND INCREASED WIND. MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED BREEZY CRITERIA THUR AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS PER THE 09/00Z GFS SOLUTION. INHERITED FORECASTS DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN GREENLEE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THUR NIGHT AND FRI. MARKEDLY COOLER FRI WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THEREAFTER...NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS. && .AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH 20Z. THEREAFTER...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 20K FT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS WIND SPEEDS APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. && .CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS TUESDAY... FORECAST RECORD/YEAR TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 87 91/1934 AJO 90 89/1980 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 90 90/1956 PICACHO PEAK 90 88/1996 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ BF WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON