000
FXUS64 KTSA 091123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE OVER EAST OKLAHOMA 
UNTIL MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA 
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY WILL 
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF A 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD... HAS KEPT A THICK BLANKET OF MID 
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDER CLOUD TOPS 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ALONG WITH MORE 
NUMEROUS MID-LEVEL RADAR ECHOS... MAY SIGNAL SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY 
EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS 
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE 
FRONT INTO... OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE 
AREA... WITH MINIMAL CHANCES SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. MODELS DO 
GENERATE SOME WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF 
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. 

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT 
SYSTEM... PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF MILD AND TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER. 
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK 
WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS AFFECTS UPON THE REGION GOING INTO THE 
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. 
THE CURRENT GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT PLUME OF GULF 
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH FAIRLY STRONG 
UPPER DYNAMICS ALSO PROGGED TO COINCIDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... 
THE INGREDIENTS COULD CONCEIVABLY COME TOGETHER FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  51  70  46 /  10  20  10   0 
FSM   74  53  75  49 /  10  10  10   0 
MLC   74  51  73  48 /  20  10  10   0 
BVO   73  50  69  44 /  10  20  10   0 
FYV   72  46  72  44 /  10  10  10   0 
BYV   70  47  69  43 /  10  10  10   0 
MKO   73  50  72  45 /  10  20  10   0 
MIO   72  48  68  45 /  10  20  20   0 
F10   72  52  71  48 /  20  20  10   0 
HHW   76  53  76  50 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...15