000
FXUS64 KTSA 271113
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH
WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
COLD START THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG/BEHIND
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIODS. CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND MID WEEK WITH A LIMITED CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST TRACK OF UPPER
LOW SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE HEAVIER/BEST PRECIP
CHANCES SOUTH OF FA ACROSS TX/LA. ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14