000 FXUS62 KTBW 240706 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 305 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH OVERALL TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THEN DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TODAY THIS WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT SOUTH SOME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CAUSING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTH WHERE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH A TROUGH PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN AFTER 18Z. && .MARINE...SOME SWELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF...BUT THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS WITH OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING LESS THAN 4 FEET. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS SO THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLAGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20 FMY 91 74 92 74 / 50 30 50 20 GIF 91 74 92 74 / 50 20 50 20 SRQ 89 74 90 74 / 50 20 40 20 BKV 90 70 91 70 / 50 20 40 20 SPG 90 79 91 79 / 50 20 40 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC