000
FXUS62 KTBW 220125
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THESE MAY MOVE ONSHORE LATER
TONIGHT AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER AS THE MAIN FRONT AS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR THIS CHANGE. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S-UPPER 50S. 

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 22/14Z. BETWEEN 2214/2218Z VFR CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FL020-025 RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 22/18Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AFTER 22/14Z ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AFTER 22/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS REPORTING WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY...AND NEAR SHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. SEAS
HAVE INCREASE TO 7-9 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE...BUT
WITH THE WESTERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET INTO TUESDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO 
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 
     NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO 
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE 
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL