000 FXUS62 KTBW 130737 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 337 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. N/NE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN S/SE FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA WILL HOLD ON FOR FRIDAY WITH A WARM HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING FRIDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND GENERALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL THEREFORE ONLY GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE NATURE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE 20 POPS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AN OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND FRONT ALSO APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND IF ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME RAIN ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT 10 POPS AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY HAVE AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES WED AND THURS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4-7 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN MODERATING. MAY STILL HAVE AROUND 4 HOURS OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE RAISED A WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE FOR THURSDAY WITH NO OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 5 FMY 87 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 5 GIF 87 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 5 SRQ 84 61 87 66 / 0 0 0 5 BKV 86 54 88 59 / 0 0 0 5 SPG 84 69 86 72 / 0 0 0 5 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO- HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK- SARASOTA-SUMTER. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO- HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA- SUMTER. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...24/JLC LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/PRC