000 FXUS62 KTAE 090720 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS WESTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER... .SYNOPSIS...WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AT HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING E-NE WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE IN THE ADVANCE OF IDA...WITH A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 42039. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE IDA SUNDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH ITS INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO THE NORTH...WE HAVE HAD TO RAPIDLY SHIFT GEARS FROM A LIKELY NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A LATE SEASON TROPICAL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA...SO PLEASE PERUSE THE TAE WATCHES/ WARNINGS/ AND ADVISORIES SECTION BELOW FOR ALL OF THE EXTRA PRODUCTS WHICH ARE NOW IN EFFECT. CLEARLY...THE GREATEST IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS....WHERE A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS WESTWARD AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL REDUCE AS IDA MOVES INLAND AND BEGINS TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT'S INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DOES CREATE ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO EXTEND QUITE A BUT FURTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE PANHANDLE COAST AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES ALONG OUR AREA BEACHES WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A STORM SURGE FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE MORE SHALLOW NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. PLEASE CONSULT OUR LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLSTAE) FOR DETAILS ON THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...SINCE IDA HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED...WE BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR A WIDESPREAD INLAND FLOODING EVENT HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY...AND UNLESS IDA WERE TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL AT THE LAST MINUTE...WE BELIEVE A GENERAL AND MOSTLY BENEFICIAL 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL WILL IMPACT OUR REGION BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... BY WED NIGHT...IDA WILL HAVE MOVED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT MORE AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE MORE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC RATHER THAN INTO THE SE...THUS THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW OFF THE SERN U.S./FLORIDA COAST THURS AND THEN OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST THURS NIGHT WILL TIGHTEN LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CREATE A BREEZY WED NIGHT AND THURS (ESPECIALLY ERN MOST ZONES). ON FRI THRU SUN...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE SE CONUS WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS. POPS WILL BE NIL WED NIGHT SUN AND INCH UP TO WDLY SCT ON MON. MIN TEMPS WILL NEAR CLIMO (CLIMO IS MID-UPPER 40S) WED AND THURS NIGHTS AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FRI THRU SUN NIGHTS. MAX TEMPS ON THURS AND FRI WILL BE NEAR CLIMO (LOW 70S) AND THEN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO SAT THUR MON. && .AVIATION... GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. STILL...VLD...ABY...AND DHN MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z. LOW CIGS AND BR SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SURFACE HEATING. AHEAD OF IDA...RAIN WITH (WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY) WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS LOCAL AREA AND MAINLY AFTER MID AFTN. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED 14Z THRU LATE AFTN...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY AT KPFN. AS IDA APPROACHES EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. && .MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GREATEST IMPACTS OF IDA WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES....AND A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL MARINE INTERESTS...INCLUDING BOATERS...SWIMMERS...AND EVEN THE MOST EXPERIENCED SURFERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE IDA WILL BE SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE ...WINDS AND RAIN TO THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 73 68 73 57 73 / 50 100 70 20 00 PANAMA CITY 77 68 73 58 72 / 70 100 60 20 00 DOTHAN 72 66 70 51 71 / 50 100 70 20 00 ALBANY 73 67 73 54 73 / 30 100 90 30 00 VALDOSTA 75 69 76 57 71 / 30 80 90 40 05 CROSS CITY 80 71 80 60 72 / 50 80 80 30 05 APALACHICOLA 74 70 74 59 74 / 80 100 60 20 05 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES ON TUESDAY. GA...A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES ON TUESDAY...EARLY...MILLER...BAKER...MITCHELL...SEMINOLE ...DECATUR...GRADY...AND THOMAS. FL...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...AND GULF. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...AND JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...GULF...INLAND WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...CALHOUN...JACKSON...LIBERTY... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...AND JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES ON TUESDAY...GADSDEN AND LEON. GM...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN OUT TO 60 NM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...BLOCK PUBLIC/MARINE/TROPICAL...GOULD/GIBBS/GODSEY