000
FXUS64 KSJT 081143
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
543 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLD
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND HAVE VCSH IN THE KJCT...KSOA AND KBBD
TERMINALS AFTER 20Z TODAY.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LEE TROF JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA 
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE 
ALONG WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. ALSO...KEEPING ISOLD TSTMS DUE TO 
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL DROP THE SLGT CHC POPS AFTER 
06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE 
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. 

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY...AND
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SATURATION BELOW 900MB CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GOING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES. ON TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO HAVE
BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. 

A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  74  55  75  48  68 /  10  10  10  20  10 
SAN ANGELO  75  54  75  47  70 /  10  10  10  10  10 
JUNCTION  73  52  76  48  74 /  20  20  10  10  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$