000 FXUS64 KSJT 131242 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 742 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008 .UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO THROW IN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY. LATEST ZONE PACKAGE REFLECTS THESE CHANGES. 23/HUBER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/ AVIATION... MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC010-020 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 13/16Z. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13/16Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS A DRYLINE MOVES BACK TO THE WEST AND A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. 21 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/ SHORT TERM... LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN TODAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A DRYLINE TO THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT A PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BELIEVE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS EASTERN PROGRESS. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE COULD BE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SONORA TO COLEMAN. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO. THE GFS ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE UPPER-LEVEL 500 MB LOW TO A LOCATION OVER EL PASO. THIS POSITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EJECTING MINOR DISTURBANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE MORE OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SONORA TO SWEETWATER. EXACTLY WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION POINT BETWEEN THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE 500 MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST. ANOTHER...STRONGER...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THUS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM... LOOK FOR A DRY PATTERN TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THEN...A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...ALONG AND WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO ROBERT LEE TO BARNHART LINE. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...WITH 20 FOOT WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 94 67 76 56 / 20 60 30 30 SAN ANGELO 96 68 85 58 / 20 50 30 20 JUNCTION 92 71 87 61 / 20 70 30 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/HUBER