000 FXUS64 KSJT 061730 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009 .UPDATE... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. .AVIATION... ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CLEAR OUT THE CIGS. THUS....BASED ON SATELLITE...APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DO THINK THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR DECK. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO POP UP NEAR THE KSJT TERMINAL ONCE AGAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...SO THINK A CB MENTION WILL COVER IT FOR NOW. BUT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DISCUSSION... COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. TWEAKED SKIES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST HIGHS FOR LATER TODAY...AGAIN DEPENDING ON SKY TRENDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON THE 12Z TAFS. AVIATION... A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER RAIN WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS CONVECTION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW CLOUDINESS WILL EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE LESS THAN 500 FT AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH VISIBILITY OF 2-3 MILES POSSIBLE. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE CONVECTIONS ENDS OR SHIFTS OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND AS CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES AND CLOUD BASES/CEILINGS RISE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD MORNING WITH A DISTURBANCE WHICH THE GFS BRINGS DOWN TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY IN NNW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/ SHORT TERM... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH REFLECT THIS AND INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEING AFFECTED BY THIS PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD LEADING UP TO 12Z...THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE HIGHS WHICH OCCURRED ACROSS SOME OF OUR AREA YESTERDAY...MAY NOT BE GOING LOW ENOUGH FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE AT SOME LOCATIONS. BUT WOULD ONLY TAKES A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE CLIMB. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT. KEEPING THE INHERITED 20 POP AREAWIDE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN RECEIVING RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS A DISTURBANCE IN NNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY TONIGHT. 19 LONG TERM... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THERE EARLY TUESDAY IF ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME COOLING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 89 69 97 73 100 / 20 20 10 10 10 SAN ANGELO 90 68 97 72 102 / 20 20 10 10 10 JUNCTION 87 70 98 72 101 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07