000
FXUS64 KSHV 061641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SPILLING THIS WAY WITH SOME NEW CONVECTION
NORTH OF I-20 IN LA. DQUA4 PROFILER HAS SEEN A BIT OF DEEPENING
OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. N/NE
WINDS ARE STIRRING TO THE NORTH OVER OK AND AR...JUST BARELY DEEP
ENOUGH TO PUSH OVER THE OZARKS. IT IS A REAL GENTLE PUSH...BUT NOT
STALLED YET AND IT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS I-20 BY SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE HEAVIER TSTM ACTIVITY IS STILL CONCENTRATED OVER N
CEN LA AND IT IS MUCH NEEDED PER US DROUGHT MONITOR. SEE THE
HEADLINE LINK OUR HOME PAGE...AT SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO HIGHS AND POPS...BUT OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORMATTED PRODUCTS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY
MOST TELLING WITH THE FRONT PILING UP SOME LOW LEVEL CU IN OK AND
BENDING AROUND THE ELEVATION. ON THE SFC...A 1016 HIGH IS SPRAWLED
OUT OVER KANSAS. HIGHER UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY
MOTION WILL WORK TO THIN CLOUDS AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE DEEPENING
AND MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS
PUSHING A SHORT WAVE OVER E TX. THE RIDGE HAS MET IS DEMISE AND
HAS FOLDED DOWN INTO THE GULF...FOR NOW. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR...MVFR...VFR FLYING WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING 
WITH CONDITIONS CHANGING FREQUENTLY. A 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS 
INTO NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND 
SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE. IT MAY BE REPLACED BY ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION...LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY 
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MOSTLY VFR FROM INTERSTATE 20 
NORTH AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR SOUTH. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A 
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TO 
REDEVELOP OVER NIGHT..ESPECIALLY DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN 
LOUISIANA WHERE RAIN OCCURS TODAY. WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED WITH
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. OTHER AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A MIX OF 
IFR...MVFR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF VFR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. 
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY NORTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 
AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTH. WINDS MAY BECOME NORTH ALL AREAS 
BY 12Z TUESDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  70  93  71  95 /  50  20  20  10  10 
MLU  86  70  92  69  94 /  60  10  20  10  10 
DEQ  87  66  93  67  95 /  10  10   0  10  10 
TXK  87  67  92  69  95 /  20  10   0  10  10 
ELD  87  67  92  67  94 /  20  10  10  10  10 
TYR  91  67  92  72  96 /  40  20  10  10  10 
GGG  90  69  93  69  95 /  50  20  20  10  10 
LFK  91  71  95  72  96 /  50  20  20  10  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14