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FGUS71 KRNK 260931
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NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-033-262200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
531 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...

DESPITE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
REGION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
OR EVEN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN MANY WEEKS.

PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND SPREAD NORTH
TODAY. RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH INITIALLY...SO
MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE DRY SOIL. BUT
RAINFALL RATES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ISOLATED PROBLEMS AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON IF ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORM.

BY THURSDAY THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
COULD BE AS HIGH AS FOUR TO FIVE INCHES...OR MAYBE MORE IN
LOCALIZED AREAS. FARTHER WEST AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE RAINFALL IS SPREAD
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FLOODING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE
SINCE THE GROUND HAS BEEN SO DRY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY IN CASE A FLOOD OR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING IS NEEDED.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

$$