000 FXUS61 KRNK 221147 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 647 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY RIDGED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 00Z MODELS COMING IN SIMILAR IN POSITION OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS TO THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...APPEARS THE GEM/ECMWF CAMP HAS THE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS...WITH A LITTLE NAM THROWN IN FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. FIRST OFF...THERE IS A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS NUDGING SWD TOWARD THE MY NRN CWA ATTM. THE 00Z GEM HAD THIS DEPICTED WELL...WITH THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING TOWARD 12Z. THE CI/CS OVER THE TN VALLEY EAST INTO NC OVERALL IS THIN...SO THINK TODAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS FROM A COOL START. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN CWA...BUT ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOW LVLS REMAINS DRY. WITH BEST LIFT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TONIGHT...HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE IN AFTER 4 PM IN THE NC MTNS WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW OUT OF THE ESE HELPING MOISTEN UP THE ATMSOPHERE. STILL ONLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS TODAY...BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO DELAY OF CLOUD COVER...CLOSE TO MET MOS. TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE NC COAST WHICH MAY HINDER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA. THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF/GEM. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS WRAPPED UP AROUND IT...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE SRN BLUE RIDGE...EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM QPF SEEMS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO MET MOS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAS CONTINUED. HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THE EVENT...MORE LIKE A CONSISTENT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REGISTER 0.01" ESPECIALLY IN THE LYH/DAN/FVX CORRIDOR. A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. POPS HAVE SLOWED WITH DIGGING MIDWEST H5 LOWS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ASIDE FROM MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT DAN THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS CIGS DROP TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR...WITH VSBYS IN THE 3-6SM RANGE. MODELS DEPICTING LOWER CIGS BUT WITH TREND TO SLOW THINGS DOWN DECIDED TO BE MORE OPTOMISTIC. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT B4 THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE NC COAST. ANOTHE FRONT ARRIVES THANKSGIVING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS/KM LONG TERM...REB AVIATION...AMS/WP