000 FXUS61 KRNK 080436 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1136 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... DECOUPLING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS HAS SENT TEMPS DOWN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SPLITTING OFF OVER THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WENT WITH COOLER LOWS IN THE VALLEYS. THE RIDGES SUCH AS BLF AND URBAN AREAS LIKE ROANOKE ARE GOING TO EMBRACE MILDER LOWS WHICH WERE ALREADY WELL FORECASTED. ON SUNDAY FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +11 TO +13 RANGE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY. SO KEPT ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER IN BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. STILL SHOULD BE CROSSING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GEFS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND SHOULD EXIT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHUNT ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION. WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING DEEPER WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ROA/LWB. THIS LOW LVL JET WILL EXIT BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...REB/WP FIRE WEATHER...