000 FXUS61 KRLX 082323 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 615 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST. COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE THREAT. WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW. LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS MON WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY. OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BATTLE OF THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. FOR OUR AREA...HPC CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SCENARIO...AND MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...UNTIL THEY FINALLY PHASE ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF. THIS ACCEPTED SCENARIO PUTS OUR AREA IN A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...AND ENDS PRECIP EARLIER (ECMWF) THAN SOME OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS AND GEM) INDICATE. LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY GET VERY LITTLE IF ANY...WHILE THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW POPS FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MAX TEMPS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST THAN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IN ANY EVENT...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY WITH COLD ADVECTION. GOING FOR PRECIP TO END AS RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA. 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...AS IT INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE U.S....AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION...BUT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM...TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S....BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE WED. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THAT OF HPC...ECMWF...AND NAM...WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST REGION DRY FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OR CALM WIND. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT FOG IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z-12Z INCLUDING EKN. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JMV NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MDP