000
FXUS61 KRLX 061819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY. WHILE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK CAP. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
REGION DRY...BUT WILL UP CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE
MAV LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AS IT IS CLOSEST TO LOCAL MOS...WHICH HAS THE BEST TRACK RECORD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
NATION AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HOLDS THRU 
THURSDAY. THIS KEEPS A GENERAL DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. 
FOR DETAILS PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO 
QUICKLY ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING RATHER STRONG SHORT 
WAVES TO DIVE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND IN TURN 
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY  
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS...EVEN THE GFS...SHOW ONLY MARGINAL 
MOISTURE AND A CAP ABOVE 600MB. THUS...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE DRY 
FOR NOW. 

HEIGHTS DO BUILD SOMEWHAT BY MID WEEK...AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES 
EAST TO ALLOW SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KICK IN ON WEDNESDAY. SO 
WE LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AND A BIT MORE HUMIDITY. STILL... 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO HIT 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY 
WITH THE LUSH VEGETATION. GENERALLY GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF 
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.     

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC.  NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS 
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN 
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.  CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW  
THOUGH GFS SHOWS DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THU 
MORNING.  SUPPORT IS LACKING FROM OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES 
INCLUDING 12Z RUNS.  NEXT FRONT APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.  DID 
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT IN LIGHT OF NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING 
HEIGHTS NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED FROM YESTERDAY IN THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z TUESDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS.  

DENSE FOG AND ANY ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY
13Z...WITH VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JSH