000 FXUS61 KRLX 240056 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 712 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EXITS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS PER LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THRU 12Z TUESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS AL...MS...AND TN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NEAR TERM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP TO NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. SOME PARTIAL CLEAR OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...BUT THIS MAY GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WV MTNS AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS BY 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE DRY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS THAN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOME IN THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS WILL OCCUR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATED THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS OF 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE COMMON THEME HERE IS THE VERY COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE OFFICE. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ALSO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO FUEL THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. USED A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...AS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TO FORECAST VALUES. STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE COAST. WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASSING BY. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THE LAST BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST 04Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY CRW...CKB...AND EKN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTICED UPSTREAM...SOUTHEAST INTO TN...AL...AND MS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 14Z. THEN...CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST SITES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MDP/JMV NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...ARJ