000 FXUS65 KREV 181101 AFDREV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 301 AM PST TUE NOV 18 2008 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP LOW SLOWLY DIGS SOUTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS NEARLY REACHED THE SURFACE AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z KREV SOUNDING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY GONE BY THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEY TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS THEY FINALLY MIX OUT. THE RECORD HIGH FOR RENO TODAY IS 70 DEGREES WHICH LIKELY WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES EVERYWHERE. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING OFF THE MAIN GULF OF ALASKA LOW APPROACHES THE PACNW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL MAINLY BE NOTICED OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE STARTING TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE SO DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NRN ZONES ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF REPORTED PRECIP BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NRN ZONES WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ABOVE MOS VALUES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THINKING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. JORDAN .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT FRIDAY...BUT THEN DIVERGE. EC FURTHER SOUTH WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE FRI NIGHT WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR SAT. GFS SHOWS MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE IF NOT WSW FLOW ALOFT RETURNING. GFS ENSEMBLE IS IN BETWEEN WITH MOST MEMBERS KEEPING THE SHORT WAVE DIGGING FURTHER EAST INTO COLORADO. AT THIS POINT...LIKE THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND...BUT BELIEVE THE EC IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. WILL MODIFY TEMPS SOME TO SHOW THE COOLING FOR SAT...BUT HOLD TEMPS STEADY AFTERWARD. IF THE EC IS RIGHT TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...EC KEEPS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SPLITTING SYSTEMS STAYING WELL OFFSHORE MON. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLY MON EVENING. GFS APPEARS MUCH TOO FAST...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP AND COOLING TEMPS UNTIL TUE EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. WALLMANN && .AVIATION... VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU WED. WALLMANN && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO