000 FGUS72 KRAH 201750 ESFRAH NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-270000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 200 PM EST FRI MAR 20 2009 ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... RAINFALL UPDATE A LENGTHY...4 DAY...PERIOD OF COLD AND DAMP WEATHER LAST WEEKEND PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL FOR THE PAST WEEK RANGED FROM AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE TO AROUND THREE INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SOME RAINFALL TOTALS (IN INCHES) INCLUDE: PAST MARCH YEAR YEAR TO DIFF WEEK TO DATE TO DATE DATE NORM FAYETTEVILLE 1.0 2.4 6.9 ~10.0 -3.1 RALEIGH 3.2 4.9 9.0 10.1 -1.1 GREENSBORO 2.1 3.4 7.5 9.0 -1.5 GROUNDWATER AND STREAMFLOW UPDATE THE LONG DURATION AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE RAIN ALLOWED THE GROUND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. THIS PREVENTED FLOODING ON ANY OF THE STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ALTHOUGH SEVERAL LARGER RIVERS...INCLUDING THE HAW AND TAR RIVERS... ROSE TO WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE IS EVIDENCED BY THE SLOW RATE AT WHICH THE STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOWS ARE FLATTENING OUT AT LEVELS FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THEIR LEVELS PRIOR TO THE RAIN. ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA WERE FLOWING WITHIN NORMAL RANGE. THE YADKIN RIVER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...HOWEVER...WAS BARELY WITHIN (26TH PERCENTILE) NORMAL RANGE. WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE AREA WENT INTO MINOR FLOOD OPERATIONS AFTER THE RAIN AS LAKE LEVELS ROSE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THEIR TARGET ELEVATIONS. DAM OPERATORS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE RESERVOIR LEVELS BACK DOWN TOWARDS THEIR TARGET ELEVATIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE LARGELY DEFINED BY STREAMFLOW AND RAINFALL DEFICIT THIS TIME OF YEAR...CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR REMOVED DROUGHT DESIGNATION FROM ALL BUT THE WESTERN FRINGE OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THESE COUNTIES BASICALLY ENCOMPASS THE YADKIN RIVER BASIN...AND WERE DOWNGRADED FROM D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) TO D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY). SHORT TERM FORECAST COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE TAR HEEL STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS PLENTY OF TIME TO FALL BACK TOWARDS LOW LEVELS. AT THIS POINT...NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. BY THAT TIME...RAINFALL WOULD HAVE TO BE WIDESPREAD AND APPROACH TWO INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING ON LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL...OR AVERAGE. LONG TERM RAINFALL OUTLOOK NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECASTS FOR THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN SUGGEST THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL END THIS SPRING. AS SUCH...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL. THERE IS NO STRONG CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL THAT MIGHT INFLUENCE RAINFALL CHANCES BEYOND APRIL. ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV REPEATING...THE CHANCE OF FLOODING FOR SPRING IS CATEGORIZED AS AVERAGE...OR NORMAL. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK UNLESS LATER UPDATES ARE NEEDED. $$