577 FGUS72 KRAH 211337 CCA ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-311800- SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 935 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR LATE MARCH THROUGH EARLY APRIL IS NEAR NORMAL... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY MARCH PRECIPITATION TO DATE HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...OFFSETTING A DAMP START DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTING AS WELL...WITH LESS RAIN (AS LOW AS 25% OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN 7 COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM DEFICIT PROMPTED SOME MINOR EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2012)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 1.83/-1.42 2.44/-0.69 2.35/-0.86 NOVEMBER 0.56/-2.56 0.24/-2.87 1.17/-1.60 DECEMBER 2.94/-0.13 2.72/-0.26 3.90/+1.25 JANUARY 3.10/-0.40 5.47/+2.41 1.80/-1.50 FEBRUARY 4.08/+0.85 3.20/+0.24 3.84/+1.08 MARCH TO DATE 1.35/-1.34 1.43/-0.97 0.75/-1.42 TOTALS 13.86/-5.39 15.50/-2.14 13.81/-4.05 % OF NORMAL 72 88 77 BEGINNING ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT DATE PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 03/14/2013 0.28 0.94 -0.66 30% LAST 14 DAYS 03/07/2013 0.93 1.91 -0.98 49% LAST 30 DAYS 02/19/2013 3.71 3.91 -0.20 95% LAST 90 DAYS 12/21/2012 10.32 10.52 -0.20 98% LAST 180 DAYS 09/22/2012 14.91 19.99 -5.08 75% LAST 365 DAYS 03/21/2012 41.12 43.34 -2.22 95% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 03/14/2013 0.19 0.85 -0.66 22% LAST 14 DAYS 03/07/2013 0.99 1.70 -0.71 58% LAST 30 DAYS 02/19/2013 2.98 3.54 -0.56 84% LAST 90 DAYS 12/21/2012 11.79 9.46 2.33 125% LAST 180 DAYS 09/22/2012 16.97 18.72 -1.75 91% LAST 365 DAYS 03/21/2012 41.83 42.20 -0.37 99% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 03/14/2013 0.17 0.81 -0.64 21% LAST 14 DAYS 03/07/2013 0.63 1.55 -0.92 41% LAST 30 DAYS 02/19/2013 2.54 3.18 -0.64 80% LAST 90 DAYS 12/21/2012 8.06 9.01 -0.95 89% LAST 180 DAYS 09/22/2012 13.92 18.14 -4.22 77% LAST 365 DAYS 03/21/2012 41.02 44.46 -3.44 92% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS FLOWS IN THE LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STREAMFLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (THE AREA STILL EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT). FLOWS AT A FEW SITES IN THE MIDDLE CAPE FEAR AND MIDDLE NEUSE RIVER BASINS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TWO MAJOR WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS IN CENTRAL NC...LAKE JORDAN AND FALLS LAKE...ARE BOTH ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE THEIR TARGET ELEVATIONS...WITH WATER SUPPLY STORAGE SUFFICIENT TO LAST THROUGH SUMMER. SHORT TERM FORECAST AN ANOMALOUS COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS ONLY ONE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM ON THE NEAR TERM HORIZON...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE HINTS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE AREA ON PALM SUNDAY WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING IS AT ITS PEAK IN MARCH AND APRIL. HOWEVER...THE LARGER SCALE FLOW SET UP OVER NORTH AMERICA SLIGHTLY FAVORS A DRIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO APRIL. ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN SUMMARY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL...BUT FLOWS IN LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE. WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE THEIR TARGET ELEVATIONS. ANTECEDENT SOIL AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...BUT WE ARE ALSO FACING A COOL SPELL WHICH WILL REDUCE EVAPORATION AND SLOW THE SPRING GREENUP. MINOR RIVER FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE WERE TO RECEIVE A FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD 1.5-2.0 INCH RAIN EVENT. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL TIME FRAME. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 4TH. $$ MLM