000 FGUS76 KPQR 112259 ESFPQR HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 400 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2009 ...OREGON WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF JUNE 11TH 2009... BELOW-NORMAL WATER SUPPLY IS FORECAST FOR MOST BASINS IN SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. NEAR-NORMAL WATER SUPPLY IS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST OREGON...AND ABOVE-NORMAL WATER SUPPLY IS PREDICTED FOR NORTHEAST OREGON. MAY PRECIPITATION WAS NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE. OBSERVED STREAMFLOW IN MAY WAS GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL FOR RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SUMMER...WITH THE FORECAST FOR BELOW-NORMAL STREAMFLOW. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML (LOWER CASE). THE OUTLOOK FOR OREGON FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. VISIT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE) FOR MORE INFORMATION. ***PLEASE NOTE THAT NWS PORTLAND IS ASSESSING THE USEFULNESS OF THE TEXT-BASED WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK. IF YOU USE THIS PRODUCT...PLEASE CONTACT ANDY BRYANT...SERVICE HYDROLOGIST AS NWS PORTLAND...VIA EMAIL AT ANDY.BRYANT@NOAA.GOV. YOUR INPUT AND COMMENTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.*** NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS SEASON. VISIT WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WESTERNWATER FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FIRST OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WATER YEAR WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY FEBRUARY 2010. =================================================================== ...SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON... ALL BUT THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS MELTED FOR THIS SEASON. OVERALL SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS WERE ABOVE-NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WALLOWAS...BLUES...AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES. SNOW TOTALS WERE NEAR-NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CASCADES. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WERE BELOW NORMAL. IN ALL BASINS...THE SPRING MELT OCCURRED EARLIER THAN NORMAL... PARTLY DUE TO THE HOT WEATHER IN LATE MAY. BASINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON HAD NO SNOW...AND ONLY HIGH ELEVATION SITES IN THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS HAD ANY SNOW LEFT. =================================================================== ...PRECIPITATION ACROSS OREGON... PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR MAY WERE NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MAY AND THE 2009 WATER YEAR THUS FAR...ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN THE WATER YEAR TOTAL FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH. BASIN PERCENT OF AVG FOR MAY OCT-MAY CHANGE ...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON... KLAMATH (OREGON ONLY) 177 91 +7 LAKE COUNTY/GOOSE LAKE 119 79 +6 HARNEY/MALHEUR BASIN 100 85 +2 OWYHEE/MALHEUR 105 98 +1 GRANDE RONDE/BURNT 102 101 0 UPPER JOHN DAY 103 95 +2 UMATILLA/LOWER JOHN DAY 100 108 -1 UPPER DESCHUTES/CROOKED 140 99 +4 HOOD/LOWER DESCHUTES 190 119 +5 ...WESTERN OREGON... WILLAMETTE VALLEY 134 86 +3 ROGUE/UMPQUA 136 87 +4 ================================================================== ...MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS... AT THE CLOSE OF MAY...2,022,000 ACRE-FEET OF WATER WERE STORED IN 27 MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN OREGON. THE CURRENT STORAGE REPRESENTS 78 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND IS 62 PERCENT OF HOLDING CAPACITY. THE CURRENT STORAGE IS 90 PERCENT OF STORAGE FOR THIS SAME TIME LAST YEAR. RESERVOIR DATA IS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. ================================================================== ...OBSERVED AND FORECAST STREAMFLOW... STREAMFLOW IN MAY WAS ABOVE-NORMAL IN NORTHERN OREGON AND NEAR-NORMAL IN SOUTHERN OREGON. SEVERAL RIVERS IN FAR-NORTHEAST OREGON WERE SWOLLEN WITH SNOWMELT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF MAY...BUT NO FLOODING OCCURRED. FORECAST STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE SUMMER ARE GENERALLY BELOW-NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON AND NEAR-NORMAL IN NORTHERN OREGON...AND ABOVE-NORMAL IN NORTHEAST OREGON. THE FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES...WHICH IS A GOOD INDEX OF CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IS 86% OF AVERAGE. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SUMMARIZES THE FORECASTS FOR SELECTED RIVERS... UPDATED JUNE 5TH. THESE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND STREAMFLOW AND ASSUME NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. W A T E R S U P P L Y F O R E C A S T S ...FORECAST AND AVERAGE ARE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET... ...'%' IS PERCENT OF AVERAGE BASED ON 1971 - 2000 NORMALS... ...'CHANGE' IS CHANGE IN PERCENT OF AVERAGE FROM LAST MONTH... STREAM AND STATION PERIOD FORECAST % CHANGE AVERAGE COLUMBIA RIVER THE DALLES JAN-JUL 92000.0 86 0 107300. OWYHEE RIVER OWYHEE RES INFLOW MAR-JUL 350.0 57 -6 613. MALHEUR RIVER NEAR DREWSEY MAR-JUL 51.0 46 -5 110. N.F. MALHEUR RIVER BEULAH RES INFLOW MAR-JUL 45.0 56 -6 81. BURNT RIVER NEAR HEREFORD MAR-JUL 41.0 80 +7 51. POWDER RIVER NEAR SUMPTER MAR-JUL 57.0 81 +1 70. IMNAHA RIVER IMNAHA MAR-JUL 310.0 103 +18 301. GRANDE RONDE RIVER LA GRANDE MAR-JUL 305.0 122 +20 249. TROY MAR-JUL 2080.0 132 +30 1578. UMATILLA RIVER NEAR GIBBON APR-JUL 130.0 178 +38 73. PENDLETON APR-JUL 320.0 215 +51 149. S.F. WALLA WALLA RIVER NEAR MILTON APR-JUL 104.0 196 +49 53. M.F. JOHN DAY RIVER RITTER APR-JUL 131.0 107 +9 123. N.F. JOHN DAY RIVER NEAR MONUMENT APR-JUL 750.0 126 +18 597. JOHN DAY RIVER SERVICE CREEK MAR-SEP 1200.0 104 +9 1153. DESCHUTES RIVER BENHAM FALLS APR-SEP 510.0 97 +3 528. CROOKED RIVER PRINEVILLE RES INFLOW MAR-JUL 115.0 63 -3 184. OCHOCO CREEK OCHOCO RES INFLOW MAR-JUL 18.0 50 -3 36. MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA APR-SEP 1510.0 126 +34 1201. S. SANTIAM RIVER WATERLOO APR-SEP 710.0 121 +17 587. N. SANTIAM RIVER MEHAMA APR-SEP 1140.0 137 +31 834. WILLAMETTE RIVER SALEM APR-SEP 5240.0 109 +11 4804. CLACKAMAS RIVER ESTACADA APR-SEP 1000.0 134 +24 748. N. UMPQUA RIVER LEMOLO LK INFLOW APR-SEP 147.0 97 +13 151. ROGUE RIVER RAYGOLD APR-SEP 830.0 93 +8 889. CHEWAUCAN RIVER NEAR PAISLEY MAR-JUL 69.0 78 +3 89. SILVIES RIVER NEAR BURNS APR-SEP 54.0 55 -17 99. WILLIAMSON RIVER BELOW SPRAGUE JUN-SEP 140.0 86 +4 162. SPRAGUE RIVER NEAR CHILOQUIN JUN-SEP 66.0 80 +6 82. KLAMATH RIVER UPPER LAKE INFLOW JUN-SEP 160.0 81 +2 198. THESE FORECASTS ARE SELECTED FROM THOSE PREPARED BY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, NATURAL RESOURCE CONSERVATION SERVICER, AND B.C. HYDRO AND POWER AUTHORITY. FOR VARIOUS PROJECT INFLOWS, THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE U.S. ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND THE U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...VISIT WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WESTERNWATER/ (LOWER CASE). BRYANT $$