320 FGUS71 KPHI 211953 ESFPHI DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015- 019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045- 077-089-091-095-101-042130- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 350 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 6 THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS. THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS. IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, MARCH 21 TO APRIL 4, 2013. IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL. NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. RECENT PRECIPITATION - SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. BETWEEN 2.0 AND 4.0 INCHES OF LIQUID HAS BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC. SNOW COVER - NORMAL. CURRENTLY WITHIN THE HSA, THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE, LEHIGH, UPPER SCHUYLKILL, AND PASSAIC BASINS, BUT WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1.0 INCH. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING UNLESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THE SNOWMELT. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC OR WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV. RIVER ICE - NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE EXISTS WITHIN THE HSA. STREAMFLOW - NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV. SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST. SHTML AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. GROUND WATER - MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NORMAL. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - ALL WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA ARE AROUND NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY-MONDAY, MARCH 18-19. PRESENTLY THIS SYSTEM LOOKS COLD FOR EARLY SPRING, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER BUT CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. PLEASE VISIT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) - NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER/SPRING FLOODING IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ONE COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK, THE AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE DELAWARE, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER SYSTEMS. FOURTEEN DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS GENERATED FOR THESE BASINS SHOW THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING IS NORMAL COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY OBSERVED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AHPS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FUTURE PRECIPITATION. SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION, THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN APPROXIMATELY TWO WEEKS. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI $$ SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 4, 2013: OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL CURRENT FLOODING...NONE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL SNOW COVER...NORMAL RIVER ICE...NORMAL STREAMFLOW...NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL GROUND WATER...NORMAL RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL AHPS...NORMAL $$ KRUZDLO