000 FXUS61 KPBZ 081951 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 251 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS. LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...KEEPING THE TERMINALS IN A WEAK SRLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCD PRECIP WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$